Barry Callebaut lowers volume forecast amid cocoa market challenges, consumer pricing pressure
Sales volume expected to decline 7% as cocoa price volatility and B2B disruptions weigh on global chocolate demand.
SWITZERLAND – Swiss chocolate manufacturer Barry Callebaut has revised its volume guidance downward for the third time in 2024/25, citing ongoing turbulence in the global cocoa bean market.
The world’s largest chocolatier now anticipates its sales volume will shrink by 7% for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2025.
The company previously projected a mid-single-digit decline, attributing the reduction to historically high cocoa bean prices, with London cocoa futures trading near £5,455 per metric ton.
While futures dipped to an eight-month low on Monday due to anticipated output increases in South America, industry analysts forecast a 10% drop in production from West Africa during the 2025/26 season, intensifying market uncertainty.
Barry Callebaut, a major supplier to multinational food brands such as Nestlé, also downgraded its earnings outlook. Operating income is now expected to grow by a mid to high single-digit percentage in constant currency, down from the previously anticipated double-digit increase.
Despite these headwinds, Barry Callebaut’s revenues remained resilient. The company reported a 56% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for the nine months through May, reaching CHF 10.9 billion (US$13.7M). This growth was supported by its cost-plus pricing model, which allows the company to transfer rising input costs—including cocoa prices—onto customers.
Peter Feld, CEO of the Barry Callebaut Group, said: “Over the past 18 months our industry has faced unprecedented disruption and volatility. Consistent with our commercial model, we have priced through the cocoa price increases to our customers.
Meanwhile, customers are managing end-consumer price increases, causing short-term B2B disruption, further impacting our volume.”
For the first nine months of the fiscal year, the group reported a total sales volume of 1,602,458 tonnes, a 6.3% year-on-year decline.
In the third quarter alone, volumes dropped 9.5% as customer demand weakened amid pricing pressures and tariff-related uncertainty, particularly in North America.
Global Chocolate volumes fell 5.1% in line with a broader market contraction. According to Nielsen data, the chocolate confectionery sector experienced a 4.2% decline, the steepest in a decade, during the same quarter. Within this context, Barry Callebaut’s Global Chocolate unit saw a 6.2% volume drop.
The company noted its ongoing BC Next Level program aims to strengthen operational resilience and improve profitability through cost-effective solutions and optimized resource allocation.
Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.
