Global alcohol consumption set for sharper decline in 2025 – IWSR
IWSR’s first mid-year update shows worsening global alcohol volume and value forecasts for 2025.
GLOBAL – Global beverage alcohol consumption is expected to decline more sharply in 2025 than previously forecast, according to a new mid-year outlook released by the IWSR.
The analytics firm now projects a 0.4% drop in total volumes for the year, revising its earlier estimate of a 0.2% decline issued in May. The downward adjustment reflects intensified pressures in key markets, particularly the United States and China.
Alongside the weaker volume forecast, IWSR has also reduced its value projection for 2025. The firm now anticipates a 0.7% decline in global alcohol value, compared with the -0.5% outlook published earlier.
The downgrade is primarily linked to the beer category, which is now expected to fall by 0.2% globally. This marks a significant shift from the previously forecast 0.2% growth.
IWSR noted that due to beer’s large serving sizes, even marginal changes in consumption have a strong influence on the overall alcohol sector.
IWSR managing director and president Marten Lodewijks said the US and China are experiencing economic and policy pressures that continue to weigh on consumption.
In the US, he explained, consumers are reducing on-premise visits as cost-of-living challenges persist, opting instead to drink at home. These shifts in behaviour have weakened beer demand, as purchasing patterns differ significantly between on-trade and at-home consumption.
In China, alcohol consumption has been affected by stricter government measures, including a crackdown on luxury goods and a ban on alcohol at public sector events.
Additionally, slower economic growth has weakened spending both in bars and restaurants and across the wider beverage alcohol market. As a result, forecasts for beer and brandy in China have been revised downward.
Across beverage categories, global spirits volumes are expected to fall by 1.3% in 2025, while wine is projected to decline by 2.4%.
Ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages remain a bright spot, with global RTD volumes forecast to grow by 1.3% this year. The category also posted a 3% increase in the first half of 2025 across 20 key markets, outperforming most other segments.
The IWSR’s latest forecast update is notable as the firm’s first-ever mid-year release. Responding to heightened market volatility and increased client demand for more frequent insights, the firm will now publish forecasts twice a year, in May and November.
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