JBS warns US cattle shortage will persist through 2026
U.S. beef supply constraints are expected to pressure margins for JBS, the world’s largest meat processor, into next year, while Brazil faces a modest herd decline.
USA – JBS executives said that the company’s U.S. beef margins are expected to tighten in the fourth quarter due to an ongoing shortage of cattle.
The meatpacker reported a drop in third-quarter profits, attributing part of the decline to weaker margins in the U.S. beef market.
Executives added that challenges in sourcing U.S. cattle are likely to continue throughout 2026, with improvements in supply projected to begin gradually in 2027.
Brazilian Herd Dynamics
In Brazil, where JBS operates several beef-packing plants, herd numbers are projected to fall between 3% and 5% in 2026 after higher slaughter rates of female cows this year.
JBS CEO Gilberto Tomazoni stated that the expected reduction is not a significant concern given the overall growth of Brazil’s cattle population over recent years.
He said that long-term agreements with local farmers and improvements in livestock management, including enriched feed and higher feedlot usage, should help mitigate the impact of the herd decline.
Tomazoni highlighted that the U.S. produces more beef with a smaller herd than Brazil, pointing to structural differences in cattle farming practices.
Most Brazilian cattle are grass-fed, resulting in lighter animals and lower beef yields per slaughter compared with U.S. operations.
Data from the Brazilian statistics agency IBGE shows the country has 238 million head of cattle, with female cow processing surpassing male for the first time since 1997, a shift that could affect future calf production.
Private analysts note that measuring Brazil’s actual herd size is challenging, with some estimates putting the total at around 190 million head.
JBS’s comments suggest the company expects supply pressures in both major markets, but it is managing operations through local sourcing contracts and livestock efficiency measures.
The persistence of U.S. cattle shortages and Brazil’s herd adjustments could influence global beef availability and pricing through 2026 and beyond.
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