Meat prices keep rising as food inflation grows in South Africa

SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa’s meat inflation continued climbing in May 2025, reaching its highest level in nearly two years due to tight domestic supply and ongoing disease-related disruptions.

The annual increase in meat prices rose by 1.2 percentage points from April to 4.4%, marking a 23-month peak, although the pace of monthly inflation slowed to 1.2% in May from 2.3% in April.

This surge comes as producer-level prices across the livestock sector push higher, with Class A beef carcasses surpassing the US$3.83 (R70) per kilogram mark for the first time on record.

Compounding the issue, a widespread foot-and-mouth disease outbreak has triggered export bans and forced quarantines, disrupting slaughter operations and tightening local meat availability.

At the same time, the ban on poultry imports from Brazil, South Africa’s biggest supplier, due to avian influenza, continues to impact mechanically deboned meat (MDM), which is widely used in processed meat products.

Since South Africa lacks the infrastructure to produce sufficient MDM locally, the restricted import volumes have put further strain on the market.

Broader food inflation also edged higher in May, with annual food prices increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 4.4% compared to the same month last year.

However, month-on-month food inflation showed a slight slowdown, dipping to 1.2% in May from 1.3% in April.

Despite the uptick in food prices, headline consumer inflation stayed steady at 2.8% year-on-year in May, with monthly inflation easing to 0.2%.

Fruits, Vegetables, and Cereals Show Mixed Movement

Vegetable prices surged as earlier weather-related delays in harvesting and transportation drove year-on-year inflation up by 5.8 percentage points to 10.3% in May.

Month-on-month vegetable inflation also rose, hitting 5.9%, up from 4.7% in April.

Fruits and nuts showed the largest annual jump, climbing by 6.2 percentage points to 13.5%, although their monthly price change continued downward at -1.3% due to strong harvests and improved supply conditions.

Bread and cereal prices remained relatively stable, with annual inflation down to 4.5% and monthly growth inching up just 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%.

Global Trends and Local Outlook

On the global front, data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization indicated that worldwide food inflation fell by 2 percentage points to 6% year-on-year in May.

While international meat prices for bovine, ovine, and pig meat grew by 1%, 8.3%, and 2.3% respectively from April to May, global pig meat remained in deflation at -0.4% year-on-year.

In contrast, bovine and ovine meat prices rose sharply by 11.8% and 29.7% year-on-year, while poultry prices dropped by 0.8% month-on-month but climbed to 3.3% annually.

Looking ahead, the combination of a firmer rand and a strong summer crop forecast may ease pressure on food prices.

Still, rising meat prices are beginning to meet consumer resistance, especially as economic growth remains muted and household spending power limited.

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