India may resume sugar exports in October as bumper harvest expected – Bloomberg

INDIA – India may allow sugar mills to resume exports in the next season beginning October 2025, as early indicators point to a bumper sugarcane harvest.  

According to Bloomberg, increased acreage and favorable monsoon rains are boosting prospects across major growing regions. 

A source familiar with the matter revealed that domestic sugar consumption is expected to rise only marginally. However, the above-average rainfall during the current monsoon period may result in a surplus, increasing the likelihood of export permissions. 

India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, had implemented an export quota system in the 2022–23 season due to adverse weather conditions and crop diseases that limited output. With global sugar prices already nearing a four-year low, any decision by India to resume shipments could further impact international markets. 

The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. (NFCSF) forecasts a 19% increase in production for the 2025–26 season, driven by expanded cane cultivation in key states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka.  

To manage the expected surplus while aligning with its clean fuel policies, India plans to divert at least 4 million tons of sugar to ethanol production, up from 3.2 million tons in the current season. 

India plays a vital role in supplying sugar to countries including Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia. In January, the Indian government permitted mills to export up to 1 million tons for the ongoing season. Historically, India has exported much larger volumes. 

By mid-July 2025, India had shipped between 650,000 and 700,000 tonnes, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). The association aims to reach 800,000 tonnes by the end of September, leaving about 200,000 tonnes unexported due to logistical challenges. 

Rahil Shaikh, Managing Director of MEIR Commodities, has proposed extending the export deadline for the current quota until December 31, 2025.  

He noted that much of the unexported sugar is located in Uttar Pradesh and other areas where weather and infrastructure limitations have hindered shipments. 

Prakash Naiknavare, Managing Director of NFCSF, praised the earlier export decision, stating it improved cash flow for sugar mills and facilitated timely payments to cane farmers.  

He added that extending the deadline would allow mills to fulfill the existing quota without negatively affecting domestic prices. 

Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.