Carlsberg lowers volume outlook despite raising profit guidance for 2025
The brewer cites weak demand, tariffs, and economic uncertainty as key challenges impacting its half-year results.
DENMARK – Carlsberg has reported half-year results that fell short of profit and volume expectations, warning that the consumer environment is unlikely to improve for the remainder of 2025.
The Danish brewer, which produces brands including Kronenbourg 1664, Tuborg, and Somersby, recorded a 2.3% increase in operating profit in the first half, below market forecasts.
Volumes declined by 1.7%, while sales rose 18% to DKK 45.9 billion (US$7.16 billion), largely due to its acquisition of Britvic.
Without Britvic’s contribution, organic revenue fell 0.3%, impacted by the loss of Carlsberg’s license to brew and distribute San Miguel, which shifted to Budweiser Brewing Group in January.
Chief Executive Jacob Aarup-Andersen described the performance as strong given the economic climate, but cautioned that consumer spending remains under pressure from price increases and ongoing uncertainty.
“There is no indication as we move into the second half that that’s going to change,” he said during a media call.
Carlsberg has narrowed its full-year operating profit growth guidance to 3%–5%, up from a previous range of 1%–5%. However, analysts at Jefferies noted that the market already anticipated around 4% growth.
The company reported a half-year operating profit of DKK 7.23 billion (US$1.13 billion), compared with analyst expectations of DKK 7.35 billion (US$1.18b). Challenges during the period included weak demand in certain markets, tariffs, and unfavorable weather conditions.
Britvic, which had a slow first quarter, saw a rebound in the second quarter with mid single-digit growth in both volume and revenue. Carlsberg expects Britvic’s full-year operating profit to be around £250 million.
In its key growth categories, sales of alcohol-free drinks rose 7%, supported by a 12% increase in volumes in Western Europe.
Premium beer sales grew organically by 5%, driven by higher marketing investments, while volumes of the flagship Carlsberg brand increased by 5%. Premium Carlsberg volumes rose 16%, with particularly strong growth in markets such as China.
Regional performance was mixed, with mid single-digit growth in the UK offset by declines in Denmark and Malaysia. Carlsberg maintains that premium beer, alcohol-free beverages, and soft drinks remain central to its long-term growth strategy.
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