Global beer volumes to fall 1% in 2025 as premium and alcohol-free segments drive value growth – IWSR 

GLOBAL – Global beer volumes are expected to decline by 1% in 2025, but the category is maintaining value as consumers continue shifting toward premium brands and no-alcohol alternatives gain momentum, according to preliminary data from IWSR. 

The research firm said the global beer market is facing sustained pressure but not a structural collapse, with rising consumer spending on higher-end products helping offset weaker overall consumption.  

In the 21 largest beer markets tracked by IWSR, known as T21, total volume declined last year, while overall category value edged higher due to premiumisation and growth in alcohol-free beer. 

The decline in volume was largely driven by two of the world’s biggest beer markets, the United States and Brazil. However, growth in South Africa and India helped soften the global downturn, while stout continued to perform strongly in its core markets. 

Premium-and-above beer segments outperformed across both mature markets such as Britain, France and Canada, as well as emerging regions including parts of Latin America, India and South Africa. 

IWSR said the industry continues to benefit from consumers willing to pay more for upgraded products and new drinking experiences. A key driver of growth has been non-alcoholic beer, which expanded in almost all T21 markets. Volumes in the segment rose by 8% in 2025, compared with a 1% decline for total beer consumption. 

The premium-plus share of non-alcoholic beer has also increased significantly, rising from 20% in 2019 to 29% in 2025, highlighting a clear shift toward higher-quality alcohol-free options. 

“The fragile state of the market has prompted more restructuring and further diversification beyond beer during the last year,” said Roisin Vulcheva. “Brand owners are redefining their core with a renewed focus on fewer, stronger brands and smarter distribution.” 

The report noted that brewers are responding to slower demand by diversifying portfolios and expanding into adjacent categories. Some firms are pursuing geographic expansion, while others are divesting assets or narrowing brand portfolios to focus on core strengths. Moves include expansion by Asahi into Africa, Tilray’s acquisition of BrewDog operations in multiple markets, and portfolio restructuring by major global brewers such as Heineken and Diageo in select regions. 

Innovation is also reshaping the category, with companies introducing flavored beers, low-calorie and no-sugar variants, and hybrid beverages that blend beer with fruit or soft drink profiles. IWSR noted rising consumer interest in cherry and berry flavors across beer, spirits and ready-to-drink products. 

Asia remains the most important region for global beer consumption, accounting for around one-third of total volume. In China, packaging innovation has become a key differentiator in the premium segment, with larger formats such as one-liter cans and full-open-top cans gaining popularity.  

IWSR consumer data also shows that Gen Z drinkers in China are increasingly shifting from spirits to beer, with more than 80% reporting beer consumption. 

In India, brewers are leveraging major sports sponsorships to strengthen brand visibility among younger, experience-driven consumers, helping premium brands gain traction in a highly competitive market. 

However, the outlook is being weighed down by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are affecting both supply chains and production costs.  

IWSR said disruptions in shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, have increased liquefied natural gas prices, raising costs for glass production. Prices for aluminum, fertilizer and carbon dioxide have also risen. 

“These conditions point to a prolonged period of elevated input costs and more value-conscious consumers,” said Martin Belchev. 

The report warned that higher costs may continue into 2026 and possibly 2027, potentially putting pressure on demand in developed markets, particularly in on-trade channels such as bars and restaurants, where cost increases are passed directly to consumers. 

Despite these challenges, IWSR said beer may be more resilient than wine or spirits due to its localized production and shorter supply chains. This structure could help buffer some of the impact of global logistics disruptions. 

The firm also pointed to a potential “affordable treat” opportunity, where consumers trading down from more expensive alcoholic categories may still choose premium beer as a lower-cost indulgence, offering a stabilising effect for the industry in a period of ongoing volatility. 

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