Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 cocoa crop forecast to fall over 10% amid heavy rains
Industry monitors warn that adverse weather, black pod disease and high fertilizer costs could significantly reduce Ivory Coast’s cocoa production during the 2026/27 season.
IVORY COAST – Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 main cocoa crop is expected to decline by more than 10 percent as excessive rainfall, disease pressure and inadequate crop treatment threaten production in the world’s largest cocoa-producing nation, according to pod counters and exporters.
The main crop, which runs from September 1 to the end of February, is now projected at between 1.35 million and 1.45 million metric tonnes, down from an estimated 1.6 million tonnes during the current season.
The forecasts were provided by four pod counters and five major exporters monitoring crop development across the country.
The excessive rainfall has been linked to the strengthening El Niño weather pattern, which is expected to disrupt rainfall, wind patterns and temperatures across West Africa. The region accounts for about 70 percent of global cocoa production, making weather conditions a key factor influencing global supply.
Consultancy Oxford Economics has issued an even more cautious outlook, estimating that Ivory Coast’s total cocoa harvest for the 2026/27 season could decline by around 20 percent. The consultancy cited the combined impact of El Niño and elevated fertilizer prices as major risks to cocoa production.
Late-June crop surveys revealed that more than 20 percent of cocoa flowers and cherelles, or young pods, died between May and June following persistent heavy rainfall.
According to pod counters and exporters, the excessive moisture caused the cherelles to yellow and fall prematurely, reducing the crop’s production potential.
The wet conditions have also encouraged the spread of black pod disease, a fungal infection that thrives in damp environments and causes cocoa pods to rot before harvest.
“The mortality rate of flowers and cherelles was much higher in June than in May because of cooler weather, rainfall and insufficient (crop) treatment,” one pod counter told Reuters, estimating the main crop at 1.4 million tonnes if conditions do not improve.
Despite concerns for next season, exporters noted that the current mid-crop remains strong. Favourable weather between January and May produced unusually large cocoa beans, with bean counts averaging around 110 beans per 100 grams compared with the typical 130 to 160 beans recorded at this stage of the season.
However, exporters and pod counters cautioned that the heavy pod load may have exhausted cocoa trees, limiting their ability to produce a strong main crop next season.
They estimate that about 200,000 tonnes of cocoa could still arrive at Ivorian ports between July and the end of August, boosting current-season production. Nevertheless, concerns over El Niño continue to grow.
“We are very worried (about El Niño) because the impact would be enormous,” said the head of an export company based in San Pedro.
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