Australian beef continues replacing U.S. supply in China
U.S. beef exports to China have dropped sharply since March.
CHINA – U.S. beef sales to China have fallen sharply since March after Beijing let permits lapse for hundreds of American processing plants and President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with tariffs.
Shipments that once averaged around US$120 million a month have collapsed, forcing Chinese buyers to turn to other suppliers.
Other American farm exports have also taken a hit during this period, with soybean producers facing losses worth billions of dollars in the current harvest season.
Although U.S. beef exports had already been pressured by drought that reduced herd sizes and drove prices to record levels, the downturn in trade with China has been much faster and deeper.
Chinese customs data show that U.S. beef exports dropped to just US$8.1 million in July and US$9.5 million in August, compared with US$118 million and US$125 million during the same months last year.
Australia has quickly stepped in to cover the shortfall, with its beef shipments rising from an average of US$140 million a month over the past two years to US$221 million in July and US$226 million in August.
Between April and August, U.S. beef exports to China were valued at US$388 million less than they would have been at previous levels, while Australian sales increased by US$313 million over the same period.
Brazil, which remains China’s top beef supplier, has also increased exports, but analysts say Australia is the biggest beneficiary because its grain-fed beef is closest in quality to U.S. supplies.
Matt Dalgleish, an analyst with Australian consultancy Episode 3, said the surge in exports is keeping cattle prices high in Australia.
U.S. industry officials argue that the halt in trade is linked more to wider U.S.-China tensions than beef itself, with the U.S. Meat Export Federation saying negotiations could reopen the market if political progress is made.
During Trump’s first term, beef sales to China expanded after a bilateral trade agreement, giving U.S. packers access to a market that pays higher prices for cuts less popular at home.
Industry representatives warn that even if restrictions are lifted, the U.S. may struggle to regain lost ground because Australian production is at record levels and its beef is currently cheaper.
As a result, Australia is exporting more beef not only to China but also in growing volumes to the United States.
Beef exporters now face further uncertainty as China investigates imports, a review set to run until November 26 that could trigger restrictions if authorities move to manage oversupply within the domestic market.
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