Brazil coffee exports drop 21% in Q1 2026 as supply constraints and tariffs weigh on shipments
Brazil’s coffee exports fall sharply in early 2026 as Constraints of a record harvest, tariffs and logistics challenges reshape global demand and trade flows.
BRAZIL – Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, recorded a sharp decline in exports during the first quarter of 2026, as shipments fell amid supply Constraints, logistical challenges and shifting global demand.
According to Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, the country exported 8.4 million 60-kilogram bags between January and March, representing a 21.2% drop compared to the same period in 2025. Export revenues also declined by 13.6% to US$3.371 billion.
March figures continued the downward trend, with shipments falling 8% year-on-year to three million bags, while revenues decreased 15.1% to US$1.125 billion. Earlier in the quarter, January and February recorded steeper declines of 30.8% and 23.5% in volume respectively.
Cecafé president Márcio Ferreira attributed the contraction to a combination of factors, including delays linked to the upcoming harvest, port logistics issues and global market conditions. He said the expectation of a larger 2026 crop has also weighed on demand.
“The expectation of a record crop discouraged international purchases by signaling a larger future supply,” Ferreira said.
Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop is projected by government agency National Supply Company to reach 66.2 million bags, a 17.1% increase over 2025. Tight availability of arabica coffee between harvests has also shifted domestic demand toward robusta and conilon varieties.
The export destination mix showed notable changes. Germany became the top buyer, importing 1.19 million bags, accounting for 14.1% of total exports. The United States ranked second with 936,617 bags, or 11.1%, followed by Italy, Belgium and Japan.
The decline in US purchases has been partly linked to the lingering effects of a 50% tariff imposed in August 2025, despite its removal later that year.
Arabica coffee made up 79.3% of total exports at 6.7 million bags, while soluble coffee accounted for 11.4%.
Cecafé expects exports of conilon and robusta to recover from May, with arabica shipments anticipated to improve from July as the new harvest begins.
Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.
