Brazil set to challenge Vietnam as top robusta coffee producer – Rabobank 

BRAZIL – Brazil is preparing to overtake Vietnam as the world’s leading producer of robusta coffee, supported by the crop’s climate resilience and rising global demand, according to a new report from Dutch bank Rabobank. 

The report projects Brazil’s robusta output to reach 24.7 million 60-kilogram bags in 2025, up from 19 million in 2020. While Vietnam is still expected to produce around 30 million bags in the 2025/26 season, Brazil’s growth trajectory signals a narrowing gap between the two coffee powerhouses. 

Robusta coffee, which has a stronger flavor profile and higher caffeine content than arabica, is widely used in instant coffee, espresso blends, and ready-to-drink beverages. Arabica, on the other hand, is favored by premium brands such as Starbucks and Nespresso. 

Climate resilience has been central to robusta’s expansion. Over the past five decades, maximum temperatures in Brazil’s major coffee regions have increased by 1.3 to 1.6 degrees Celsius, while rainfall has dropped by as much as 211 millimeters.  

Robusta demonstrates higher resistance to heat, drought, and disease than arabica, making it increasingly valuable as climate pressures mount. 

Rabobank noted that irrigation is a crucial adaptation measure, with 71% of Brazil’s robusta plantations now irrigated. By 2040, irrigated land dedicated to robusta could expand to 363,800 hectares.  

While initial investment costs are significant, around US$15,700 per hectare, the crop delivers nearly 170% higher yields per hectare than arabica, with payback periods averaging four years. 

Brazil also benefits from approximately 28 million hectares of degraded pastureland suitable for agricultural conversion, enabling the expansion of coffee production without deforestation.  

Further growth prospects are strengthened by the exemption of instant coffee from the European Union’s deforestation-free regulations, which could drive additional demand for robusta-based products. 

Despite production growth, Brazil faces mounting trade challenges. The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee and other products, effective since August, following heightened tensions between the administrations of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Donald Trump. 

As a result, exports to the U.S. have sharply declined. Data from Cecafe, Brazil’s coffee exporters’ council, showed that shipments to the U.S. dropped 46% in August compared with the previous year, when exports hit record highs. By mid-September, exports had fallen an additional 20% compared with August levels. 

“If tariffs continue, exports will keep falling,” warned Marcio Ferreira, head of Cecafe and superintendent of Tristao Trading, a major coffee exporter. 

The report underscores both Brazil’s potential to dominate the robusta market and the risks posed by ongoing trade disputes. 

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