Brazilian beef exports expected to stay stable in 2026 despite Chinese restrictions
China imposes safeguards limiting imports, while other markets offer alternative opportunities for Brazilian exporters.
BRAZIL – Brazil’s beef exports are projected to remain steady in 2026, with total shipments expected to reach between 3.3 million and 3.5 million metric tons, according to the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (ABIEC).
This follows a record year in 2025, when Brazil exported 3.5 million tons of fresh and processed beef, achieving its highest revenue and volume figures on record, based on trade data.
ABIEC President Roberto Perosa said the outlook reflects China’s new protective measures, which restrict Brazilian beef and other international suppliers from freely accessing the country’s market.
Perosa added that volumes not absorbed by China, which purchased roughly half of Brazil’s beef exports last year, could be redirected to other countries or markets where Brazilian producers are seeking entry.
Vietnam recently authorized Brazilian beef exports, while negotiations continue with Japan, South Korea, and additional countries to expand market access, he noted.
Perosa also mentioned ongoing discussions to increase exports to the Philippines and Indonesia, with Indonesia expected to approve about 18 Brazilian processing plants after recent inspections by local authorities.
The United States, Brazil’s second-largest beef market in 2025, is projected to import 400,000 tons this year, up from 270,000 tons in the previous year, according to ABIEC projections.
Perosa pointed out that last year’s shipments to the U.S. were limited due to additional tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump on Brazilian beef and other commodities, some of which have since been removed.
ABIEC plans to open an office in Washington, D.C., in 2026 to strengthen trade relations and support exporters navigating international market requirements.
The association represents major listed meat companies including JBS, Marfrig, and Minerva, which collectively account for a significant portion of Brazil’s beef exports.
Analysts say Brazil’s ability to maintain export levels will depend on redirecting shipments from China to other regions and securing approvals from new markets, highlighting the importance of trade diversification.
Global demand for beef remains resilient, but ongoing regulatory actions in key markets, such as China, will shape Brazil’s export strategies and influence its annual shipment figures.
Brazilian authorities and industry representatives continue to engage with international buyers and regulators to sustain market access and minimize disruptions caused by trade restrictions.
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