Brazil’s beef exports to China set to reach annual quota by September – CEPEA
Government warns uncontrolled exports could disrupt domestic market and jobs.
BRAZIL – Brazil is on track to reach its full annual beef export quota to China by September if the current pace continues, according to researchers at the University of Sao Paulo’s Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea).
In January 2026 alone, Brazil shipped 119,630 tonnes of beef to China, marking the largest volume ever recorded for the first month of the year.
The surge in exports comes despite China introducing new limits in December that impose a 55% tariff on beef shipments exceeding a set quota, up from the standard 12% rate.
Under the new rules, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the United States face restrictions, with Brazil’s ceiling set at 1.106 million tonnes for 2026.
Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture warned in an internal letter obtained by Folha de S. Paulo that failing to coordinate exports could destabilize trade flows and cause a sharp decline in domestic beef prices and employment.
The ministry is pushing for a national export quota system to control how much each private company can sell to China under the tariff ceiling.
Officials argued that without controls, large exporters could rush to secure contracts early in the year, squeezing out smaller players and depressing prices in the domestic market.
Major Brazilian meat exporters to China include JBS, Minerva, and Marfrig, which together dominate a significant share of the market.
The ministry’s analysis indicated that Chinese demand for imported beef could drop by roughly 35% under the new safeguard measures, equivalent to approximately 600,000 tonnes, putting pressure on producers.
Any surplus production originally destined for China would likely be redirected to other markets, further reducing prices and affecting regions heavily reliant on cattle farming.
The document stressed that without a national mechanism to manage exports, competition among Brazilian companies could become disorderly and harm the sector.
Data for January showed no immediate slowdown in exports, with Brazil sending 258,940 tonnes of beef worldwide, a record for the month and surpassing January 2025 figures.
China accounted for 46.3% of these exports, nearly matching its average share of 47.67% from the previous year.
The Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries reported that China imported 123,200 tonnes of Brazilian beef in January, about 35% more than the same period in 2025.
Cepea researchers noted that if January’s export momentum persists, Brazil’s quota for 2026 would be exhausted by September, highlighting strong external demand despite tighter Chinese regulations.
Some uncertainty remains over the quota’s consumption, as part of January shipments were loaded before Beijing’s new safeguard measures, and the Brazilian government said pre-announcement cargoes should not count toward the ceiling.
China defended the higher tariff as a way to protect its domestic market amid oversupply and slower consumption, while continuing to rely heavily on imports from Latin America and Australia.
A proposal under discussion in Brasilia would allocate export licenses based on recent sales history while reserving portions for smaller exporters and automatically blocking shipments that exceed authorized volumes.
Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.
