Global beef production expected to decline further in 2025 – Rabobank
Mexico’s cattle industry faces ongoing challenges from disease and trade restrictions.
WORLD – Global beef production in leading markets is projected to fall by 0.8% in 2025 compared to last year, according to Rabobank’s latest market report.
New Zealand is anticipated to record the sharpest percentage decline in output, while the United States is expected to see the largest reduction in actual volume.
The contraction in global beef production is likely to extend into 2026, with forecasts suggesting a 3.1% decrease, particularly in Brazil, the US, and Canada.
Cattle prices in the Northern Hemisphere have remained high relative to Southern Hemisphere markets, with US and Canadian prices showing slight seasonal dips between September and October despite continued production constraints.
In contrast, cattle prices in most Southern Hemisphere countries increased during the same period, with Argentina being the only exception.
Mexico’s beef sector is entering 2026 with a stabilized supply after two consecutive years of herd reduction driven by drought conditions and strong export incentives.
However, the recovery is uneven due to border restrictions linked to disease outbreaks, fluctuating trade flows, and volatile domestic prices, costs, and profit margins.
In late 2024, Mexico experienced a resurgence of New World Screwworm, a parasitic threat to livestock that prompted a halt in all live cattle exports to the United States.
The outbreak required producers to incur additional costs for monitoring and treatment while authorities implemented emergency eradication programs, delaying normalization of trade, which may not resume before mid-2026.
Earlier in 2025, RaboResearch reported that global beef production had already begun to decline, with a 2% fall in the first quarter compared to 2024 and a projected 3% drop in the second quarter.
Brazil and New Zealand are expected to contribute the most significant reductions, with South American suppliers increasingly targeting exports over domestic sales as herd sizes shrink.
Brazil, responsible for 63% of the continent’s total beef supply, is projected to reduce output by 500,000 metric tonnes this year following heavy female cattle slaughter driven by elevated prices in 2022 and 2023, according to Rabobank senior analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.
Other major South American producers, including Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, are also planning cutbacks in production throughout 2025 to respond to changing market conditions.
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