Ivory Coast cocoa output set to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 season

IVORY COAST – Ivory Coast expects cocoa production to rise to between 2 million and 2.1 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, marking a 10.5% increase from the previous year, according to the head of the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC).  

The season runs through the end of September. 

If achieved, the increase would represent the first production growth in three years for the world’s largest cocoa producer, following declines caused by adverse weather conditions, ageing plantations and the spread of swollen shoot disease. 

A Reuters poll of traders and analysts conducted in March had projected a lower output of about 1.8 million tons for the season. 

CCC Director Yves Brahima Kone told Reuters that higher cocoa prices over the past two seasons have supported improvements in farm practices. “High cocoa prices over the past two seasons have enabled cocoa farmers to buy and use more fertiliser and improve how they manage their plantations, boosting output,” he said. 

Kone added that current arrivals indicate a recovery trend. “We currently stand at just over 1.7 million tons as of May 11, in terms of cocoa arrivals at the two ports,” he said. “This is a positive trend when compared to the last two seasons.” 

However, market participants have noted that significant volumes remain unsold within the country. A Europe-based cocoa trader told Reuters: “There is still so much cocoa on the ground, but (Ivorian exporters) did not want to sell before the market went up, plus farmers did not want to sell at the cheaper farmgate price.” 

The trader added that delayed sales could soon become more visible in European warehouses as export activity increases. 

Looking ahead, CCC survey teams have raised concerns about the next production cycle. Kone said field assessments showed weaker pod development conditions compared to last year. 

“We have concerns about the end of this season, but above all about the start of the next main season,” he said. “The counts do not show a situation similar to or better than last year’s.” 

Ivory Coast recently cut the farmgate price paid to cocoa farmers by nearly 60%, reducing it from 2,800 CFA francs per kilogram to 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram as authorities responded to shifting global price conditions and weaker demand. 

Global cocoa prices, which surged to around US$12,000 per tonne in 2024, have since declined sharply through 2025, placing renewed pressure on producer economies and farmer earnings. 

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