South Africa’s meat prices spike as food inflation holds at 4.4% – FNB Commercoals

SOUTH AFRICA – FNB senior agricultural economist Paul Makube said soaring meat prices were the main contributor to food inflation, with beef rump steak rising 35% year-on-year, adding about US$3.57 per kilogram to reach US$13.79/kg.

Other beef cuts also climbed sharply, with beef chuck increasing 31.6% or US$2.16 to reach US$9.01 per kilogram, reflecting widespread supply pressures.

Pork prices saw similar upward trends, with chops 22.8% more expensive than a year ago at US$7.04 per kilogram, while ribs and fillet increased 16.3% and 13.1%, respectively, according to Makube.

He attributed the price spikes primarily to supply interruptions caused by a Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak, which has created challenges in stabilizing meat availability in high-risk provinces.

Makube added that if vaccination campaigns reduce outbreak occurrences by more than 70% within 12 months and movement controls protect disease-free areas, meat prices could decline later in 2026.

Authorities have announced a nationwide vaccination programme, but Makube cautioned that regaining officially recognized disease-free status will require time under the current strategy.

The South African meat industry contributes over US$5 billion in gross value and supports rural employment, with poultry accounting for 60% of consumption, followed by beef, pork, and sheep/goat meat.

Total meat production in 2025 reached approximately 3.86 million tons, with poultry leading at 1.65 million tons, while beef declined to 764,000 tons due to disease impacts and pork remained around 347,000 tons.

Production forecasts for 2026 indicate modest growth, with poultry expected at 1.68 million tons, beef recovering to 741,000–782,000 tons, pork slightly rising to 350,000 tons, and sheep/goat production declining to 97,000 tons.

Processed meat output, valued at roughly US$2.34 billion, is increasing at an annual rate of 6.64%, driven by products like sausages and polonies.

Per capita meat consumption averages 65 kg annually, with chicken preferred for affordability, priced at US$2.23/kg compared with beef at US$3.63/kg, and total consumption is projected to rise slightly in 2026.

Beef consumption is forecast at around 760,000 tons, growing 1.1–2.0% annually, while pork and poultry maintain stable consumption and sheep/goat intake is declining due to higher prices and competition.

The industry continues to face significant hurdles from FMD, which affected eight of nine provinces in 2025, reducing animal weights, restricting movements, and causing major export losses, including a 69% drop in shipments to China.

Baseline projections show beef exports at 35,700 tons in 2025 and 27,600 tons in 2026, while severe FMD scenarios could collapse exports to nearly 100 tons, generating cumulative production value losses of US$569 million through 2030.

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