UK supermarkets expect record Christmas sales amid rising prices – Worldpanel by Numerator

UK – UK supermarkets are preparing for record spending this Christmas as prices climb fastest in the fresh meat sector, according to the latest Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar) grocery market share report.

Lidl recorded a 10.8% increase in sales over the 12 weeks to early November, capturing an 8.2% share of the market.

Tesco’s market share reached 28.2% following a 5.9% rise in spending, while Sainsbury’s sales grew by 5.2% to hold 15.7% of the market.

Morrisons saw a modest sales increase of 2.3%, giving it an 8.3% share, and Waitrose achieved a 3.8% rise in sales to reach 4.4% of the market.

Marks & Spencer recorded an 8.8% growth in grocery sales over the 12-week period, marking its fastest increase since June.

Convenience chain Co-op held 5.4% of the market, and Asda’s share stood at 11.6% during the same period.

Ocado achieved a record market share of 2.1% for the 12 weeks to November 2, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing grocer for the third consecutive month with its highest sales growth rate since April 2021 at 15.9%.

Grocery inflation eased to 4.7% in the four weeks to November 2, while overall take-home sales rose by 3.2%, with spending on discounted items climbing 9.4% compared with a 1.8% increase for full-priced goods.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, noted that supermarkets are focusing on price reductions rather than multibuy offers to support households facing financial pressures ahead of the Budget.

Worldpanel predicts a potential record for premium own-label lines this December, with sales expected to exceed US$1 billion, up from US$582 million recorded in the latest month.

McKevitt added that consumers are prioritizing both quality and value during the cost-of-living crisis, often selecting premium products as a way to treat themselves affordably over the festive period.

Spending on home delivery grew by 11% this month, with all retailers offering online services reporting higher sales.

Households using online grocery shopping now make an average of three orders per month, representing 61% of their total spending at supermarkets, and growth is being driven primarily by these existing online shoppers.

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