Ukraine sugar production to drop 26% in 2025/26 as EU trade restrictions, lower acreage hit output 

UKRAINE – Ukraine’s sugar production is projected to decline sharply in the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting reduced planting areas and shifting trade dynamics, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB). 

The country is expected to produce 1.3 million tons of sugar, marking a 26.3% decrease from the previous season. UCAB attributed the decline to a reduction in sowing areas, which fell by 21.6% to 199,000 hectares as farmers responded to export constraints and limited access to international markets. 

“These changes are largely driven by EU trade restrictions and ongoing challenges in accessing third markets,” UCAB said in its survey. 

The shift follows the European Union’s reinstatement of tariff rate quotas in 2025, replacing the full trade liberalization measures introduced after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

Despite the reduction in acreage, favorable weather conditions have supported crop performance. Sugar beet yields are projected to reach 49.3 tons per hectare, representing a 2% increase from last season and 4.4% above the five-year average. 

Sugar exports are forecast to decline to 505,000 tons in 2025/26, down from 629,000 tons previously. UCAB noted a significant change in export destinations, with the EU’s share dropping to 17% in the 2024/25 season. 

“In contrast, Africa and the Middle East have become increasingly important markets, accounting for 32% and 29% of exports, respectively,” the group stated. 

Domestic sugar consumption is also expected to decline, falling from pre-2022 levels of 1.1 million tons to around 0.9 million tons in 2025/26. However, UCAB indicated that high yields and carryover stocks of approximately 620,000 tons would be sufficient to meet local demand while sustaining export volumes. 

The downturn follows a record year in 2024, when Ukraine achieved a 27-year high in sugar exports, reaching the largest volume since 1997 and generating US$419 million in revenue. This growth was supported by elevated global sugar prices, averaging €510 per ton, and the continued operation of Ukraine’s seaports. 

However, export momentum slowed after the expiration of preferential trade arrangements with the EU. While the bloc accounted for 77% of Ukraine’s sugar exports in early 2023, its share fell sharply in subsequent periods. 

European producers are also facing mounting challenges. In a joint statement, the European Association of Sugar Manufacturers (CEFS) and the International Confederation of European Beet Growers (CIBE) said, “The sector is under significant pressure from falling global prices and increased import competition.” 

The associations added, “We urge the EU to suspend raw sugar imports and take measures to protect local producers from price dumping.” 

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