USDA cuts Q3 pork output forecast as tight hog supplies lift prices

USA – The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its estimate for third-quarter 2025 pork production by about 145 million pounds, bringing the total to roughly 6.6 billion pounds due to limited supplies of slaughter-ready hogs and slightly lower average dressed weights.

This adjustment places third-quarter production 2.3% below the same period in 2024, according to the USDA’s September Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.

While output expectations have fallen, live hog prices remain unchanged from last month at US$77 per hundredweight (cwt), marking a year-on-year increase of more than 17%.

Persistent supply strain into Q4

The USDA also revised its fourth-quarter forecast, lowering production by around 35 million pounds to an estimated 7.29 billion pounds.

Despite this downward revision, the fourth-quarter figure still represents a 1.1% increase compared with the same quarter of 2024.

The agency expects the supply constraints affecting the third quarter to continue into the final months of the year, contributing to higher prices.

Fourth-quarter hog prices have been raised by US$2 per cwt to US$69, around 10% higher than a year earlier.

Processors chase limited supplies

Data from weekly 2025 hog prices show a widening gap between negotiated carcass prices, or spot prices, and the national weighted average for producer-sold hogs since late June.

Under typical market conditions, the two price series move closely together, but the current gap suggests that processors are competing aggressively to secure limited supplies.

This trend indicates that slaughter-ready hog numbers have been lower than anticipated, especially in early summer, prompting processors to bid up prices to meet processing schedules and fulfill existing pork contracts.

2026 prices adjusted to reflect market trends

Looking ahead, the USDA has increased its first-half 2026 hog price projections to align with historical quarterly relationships following the recent market adjustments.

Prices are now forecast at US$65 per cwt for the first quarter and US$70 per cwt for the second quarter.

China trade remains steady despite high tariffs

Meanwhile, US pork exports to China in July 2025 held steady at 36,461 metric tons despite an overall tariff rate of 57%, according to data from the USDA and the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Export value, however, declined 13% to US$77.6 million, reflecting the impact of higher duties compared with last year’s 37% rate.

From January to July, total shipments to China dropped 16% in volume to 218,005 metric tons and 17% in value to US$513.3 million, largely due to a sharp decline in exports in April and May when tariffs were at their highest.

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