Brazil pork exports seen rising in 2026

BRAZIL – Brazil’s pork industry is projected to extend its growth momentum into 2026, with exports, production and prices all expected to post gains, according to fresh estimates from the Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea).

Following a solid performance in 2025, Cepea forecasts pork exports will reach around 1.44 million tonnes in 2026, representing a 6.3% year-on-year increase and reinforcing Brazil’s standing among the world’s top pork suppliers.

Based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture, Brazil has ranked as the third-largest global pork exporter since 2023, a position analysts say is likely to be maintained as overseas shipments continue to expand.

Export growth is expected to be driven by both the opening of additional markets and higher export revenues, with Southeast Asia remaining central to Brazil’s pork trade strategy.

The Philippines are projected to remain Brazil’s largest destination, with imports of Brazilian pork forecast to rise by about 7% in 2026 as local demand continues to outpace domestic supply.

In contrast, shipments to China are expected to decline further, reflecting subdued Chinese demand, with Brazilian pork exports to the country down by more than 70% between the 2021 peak and partial figures for 2025.

Within the Americas, Mexico is expected to record continued growth in purchases, supported by its position as the world’s largest pork importer and by recent bilateral trade agreements aimed at expanding Brazilian access.

Domestic market outlook

On the domestic front, pork prices are expected to remain high in 2026, following the trend observed in 2025, as steady consumer demand supports market conditions.

The Brazilian Animal Protein Association estimates per capita pork consumption will reach 19.5 kilograms in 2026, marking a 2.5% increase compared with the previous year.

To supply both domestic and international markets, Cepea projects pork production will rise by about 4% to 5.88 million tonnes in 2026.

Producer profitability is also expected to remain favourable, supported by strong live hog prices and relatively controlled feed costs despite potential increases in corn and soybean meal prices early in the year.

Large carryover stocks and expectations of robust harvests are likely to prevent sharp increases in production costs, according to Cepea.

Poultry sector context

Alongside pork, Brazil’s poultry sector is also expected to grow, with the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein forecasting chicken exports of 5.32 million tonnes in 2025, up 0.5% from the previous year.

Earlier estimates had pointed to faster growth before a bird flu outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul, which was contained within a month and avoided broader trade disruptions.

Brazil currently supplies about 38% of global chicken exports, and industry officials say reduced US output due to avian influenza could create additional opportunities for Brazilian producers in international markets.

Looking ahead, ABPA expects chicken production to reach up to 15.6 million tonnes in 2026, while pork exports are also expected to continue rising, potentially keeping Brazil firmly in third place among global pork exporters.

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