Tight cattle supplies and record beef prices in the U.S. are expected to limit export growth

GLOBAL – China has renewed export registrations for more than 400 American beef processing facilities after a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, according to updates published on the Chinese customs authority website on Friday.
The renewed approvals follow months of uncertainty for the U.S. beef industry after Chinese export permissions issued between March 2020 and April 2021 expired without the usual extensions, leaving roughly 65% of previously approved American beef facilities unable to access the Chinese market.
U.S. beef exports to China reached a high of US$1.7 billion in 2022 before trade tensions between Washington and Beijing disrupted market access and slowed shipments from American suppliers.
According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation, Chinese authorities granted fresh five-year registrations to 425 overdue U.S. beef establishments while also approving 77 new facilities for exports to the Chinese market.
Dan Halstrom, chief executive of the federation, said the renewed licences would allow Chinese buyers to resume purchases from U.S. suppliers after an extended delay caused by expired registrations.
The White House had previously informed cattle producers and meat exporters that export approvals would be part of discussions during the Beijing summit between the two leaders.
Reuters reported earlier this week that Chinese authorities had initially approved the registrations while talks were underway before customs officials appeared to suspend the clearances hours later.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi later stated on Friday that both governments had agreed to address concerns related to agricultural market access during the discussions.
Despite the renewed approvals, analysts said exports from the United States are unlikely to rise sharply because domestic cattle supplies remain limited and beef prices continue to climb.
The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level in 75 years while strong local demand has pushed beef prices to record highs during 2026.
Earlier this week, the Trump administration was considering executive measures aimed at increasing beef imports into the United States in an effort to ease domestic price pressure.
Austin Schroeder, an analyst at Brugler Marketing & Management, said the United States currently lacks enough supply capacity to support a major increase in exports.
Meanwhile, facilities owned by Cargill and several other meat companies were included in the newly approved export registrations after Cargill chief executive Brian Sikes joined other U.S. business leaders accompanying Trump during the China visit.
Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.