South Africa cuts citrus export forecast after floods, overall impact remains minor 

SOUTH AFRICA – The Citrus Growers Association has revised its citrus export forecast slightly downward following major floods in late May, with total shipped volumes now expected to reach 207.4 million cartons (15kg) by campaign end. 

That figure is down from an initial estimate of 209.4 million cartons, a reduction of just 2 million cartons, or less than 1%.  

In general, the impact of the floods on exports has been minor, despite localized orchard destruction in the Eastern Cape and some disruption to packing and logistics. 

Moreover, floodwaters inundated some orchards and wiped out entire production blocks in the Eastern Cape, but CGA’s figures indicate that the broader industry impact remains limited.  

However, the updated forecast shows modest declines across all major categories, with no single commodity losing more than 1 million cartons compared with initial estimates. 

Grapefruit is down from 17.8 million to 17.7 million cartons, while lemons fell from 45.9 million to 45.8 million. Mandarins decreased from 52.7 million to 51.8 million cartons, Navel oranges from 30 million to 29.2 million, and Valencia oranges from 63 million to 62.9 million. 

As of week 21, the country had shipped 8.6 million cartons of grapefruit, 22.1 million cartons of lemons, and 13.4 million cartons of mandarins. Shipments of Navels reached 3.5 million cartons, while Valencia shipments have not yet begun this season. 

CGA CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele provided additional context on grapefruit exports, noting that the weekly table captures total packed volumes, including processing-grade fruit. This week’s figures total 7.2 million cartons of Class 1 and 2, with processing-grade fruit accounting for 1.4 million cartons. 

Comparing these revised figures with last season’s volumes shows they are consistent with expectations at this stage of the season. Last season, Class 1 and 2 grapefruit totalled 7.8 million cartons, and processing grade totalled 800,000 cartons. “This aligns with expectations at this stage of the season,” Ntshabele said. 

South Africa’s minor forecast revision demonstrates the resilience of the country’s citrus sector. The industry is geographically dispersed across multiple production regions, so the Eastern Cape floods did not affect the Western Cape or Limpopo simultaneously. 

As a result, that reliability sustains confidence in South Africa as a trading partner, which is as valuable as price or quality for long-term contracts. Additionally, the 1% reduction is a minor adjustment, not a crisis, and the export campaign remains robust. 

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