China targets high-value agricultural exports by 2030 as trade deficit narrows nearly 24%

CHINA – China’s agricultural exports reached a record US$104.16 billion in 2025, and the nation’s strategic roadmap to 2030 prioritizes quality-driven growth, technological innovation, and diversified markets over simple volume expansion.

The China Agricultural Sector Development Report 2026, released by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, shows that the country’s vegetable and fruit sectors are shifting from an export-oriented model to a more balanced approach that serves both domestic and international markets.

In 2025, China imported agricultural products worth US$207.41 billion, roughly double the value of its exports. However, the agricultural trade deficit narrowed by nearly 24% compared with 2021.

China’s vegetable exports continue to generate trade surpluses, supported by garlic, onions, and potatoes. Fruit exports are dominated by apples, pears, citrus, grapes, and processed products.

In addition, the report identified several product categories with export growth potential over the next five years, including processed fruits and nuts, melons, frozen fruits, and frozen vegetables.

According to Hu Xiangdong, director of the Academy’s Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, future growth should prioritize product quality, processing capacity, cold chain logistics, and supply chain efficiency rather than export volume alone.

He also called for further development of regional brands and for expanded market access for participants in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Furthermore, researchers recommend pairing export upgrading with more diversified import sources to mitigate geopolitical risks. Zhao Changbao, director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ Research Center for Rural Economy, said that geopolitical tensions, shipping risks, fertilizer supply disruptions, and shifting trade policies could heighten volatility in agricultural markets.

Huang Jikun, dean of the School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences at Peking University, said future competitiveness will depend on policy innovation, investment, and technological progress.

“With the right institutional innovation and policy support, some agricultural sectors may continue expanding their export advantages rather than seeing them decline,” he added.

Processed fruits and vegetables, frozen produce, and premium nuts offer the greatest growth potential for future trade. The strategy envisages a more balanced market approach, with high-value sectors serving both domestic and international demand.

China’s ability to develop regional brands and cold-chain infrastructure will determine its success in premium markets. Lastly, the roadmap prioritizes technological adoption and supply-chain resilience over traditional volume-based growth models.

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