Geopolitical tensions are reshaping global seafood trade – Rabobank

WORLD – The international seafood industry is entering a period of instability as tariffs, sanctions, and political disputes alter long-standing trade flows, according to Rabobank.

In a new assessment, the bank highlighted that the shrimp sector is experiencing some of the sharpest disruptions.

Shrimp, the world’s most traded seafood product, has been hit by US tariffs of up to 50%, a move that falls heavily on Asian exporters.

The result has been a redirection of trade towards other markets, creating oversupply and triggering significant price fluctuations worldwide.

Salmon, which depends on extended production cycles and timely delivery of fresh product, is also exposed to trade measures.

Rabobank noted that potential US tariffs on Canadian salmon could unsettle the market given that 87% of Canada’s salmon is exported to the US.

The uncertainty is already slowing new investment and could push up consumer prices, dampening demand in the world’s largest seafood market.

Freshwater fish species are facing similar challenges, particularly tilapia and pangasius.

Chinese tilapia could become unviable in the US under a proposed 75% tariff, eliminating one of the country’s main supply sources.

Without a ready substitute, American consumption of tilapia is expected to decline, while Chinese exporters may be forced to redirect volumes to Africa and Latin America, raising the risk of oversupply and weaker prices in those regions.

Groundfish markets are also under strain from trade restrictions. Rabobank pointed out that Russian-origin fish, once a cornerstone of international supply, has been curtailed by sanctions.

This shift has pushed up prices in European markets while causing surimi to pile up in Asia, further pressuring producers.

The report warned that across all seafood categories, the industry faces a prolonged phase of instability that could limit investment and hinder long-term planning.

Producers in Asia, particularly in shrimp, freshwater fish, and surimi, are expected to bear the brunt of the disruption.

Meanwhile, consumers in the US may see higher retail prices and fewer options at a time when food costs remain a sensitive issue.

Rabobank concluded that diversification of sourcing and sales channels is becoming essential for companies, although implementing such strategies is difficult in a cost-sensitive sector like seafood.

Developing stronger domestic markets may provide some relief, but the overall outlook remains highly uncertain.

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