Global beef exports set to decline in 2026 – USDA reports
Rising international meat prices continue to put pressure on global markets.
WORLD – Global beef shipments are projected to fall by 1% to 13.5 million tons in 2026, as lower exports from Australia, Brazil, and the United States outweigh gains from Argentina, India, Mexico, and New Zealand, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s first forecast for next year.
Brazil and Australia, the world’s leading beef exporters, are expected to send less overseas after both countries reached record export levels in 2025, with slower cattle slaughter and adjustments in herd management reducing the supply available for export.
Worldwide beef production is also predicted to decline by 1% in 2026 to 61.0 million tons, as decreases in Australia, Brazil, China, the European Union, and the United States surpass production increases in India, Mexico, New Zealand, and Uruguay.
Brazil’s beef output is forecast to fall by 650,000 metric tons to 11.7 million metric tons, while China is expected to produce 7.56 million metric tons, down 230,000 metric tons from the previous year.
Chinese imports are projected to decline slightly to 3.75 million tons in 2026, following a sharp upward revision of 2025 imports to 3.815 million tons, showing continued strong demand for beef in the country.
Brazilian exports are anticipated to drop by 250,000 tons next year to 4 million metric tons, after the USDA significantly revised both 2025 and 2026 figures upward compared with previous estimates from its Brazil office.
Mercosur exports are expected to fall by 205,000 tons in 2026 to 5.815 million tons, with growth from Argentina and Uruguay only partially offsetting declines from Brazil and Paraguay.
Rising Global Meat Prices
These developments follow reports in September that global meat prices are reaching record levels, as strong demand in major markets continues to strain international supplies.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index showed minimal overall change in August at 130.1 points, compared with a revised 130 points in July, representing a 6.9% increase from the same month in 2025 and the highest reading since February 2023.
The FAO Meat Price Index rose by 0.6% to 128 points in August, marking the highest level in at least 25 years and surpassing the previous peak of 127.2 in July, driven mainly by higher beef prices from increased purchases by the United States and strong demand from China.
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