Kenya coffee exports forecast to rise 12% in 2026/27 – USDA 

KENYA – Kenya’s coffee industry is expected to record a strong recovery in the 2026/27 marketing season, supported by higher production, expanding government support programmes and sustained strength in global Arabica coffee prices. 

According to a report by the United States Department of Agriculture, Kenya’s coffee exports are projected to reach 940,000 bags, equivalent to about 56,400 metric tons, during the 2026/27 marketing season.  

The forecast represents an 11.9% increase compared to the previous season, when exports stood at 50,400 metric tons. 

The USDA attributed the expected growth to improved harvest conditions and increasing output from newly established plantations that are now entering productive maturity. 

Coffee production is also forecast to rise alongside exports. Kenya’s total output is projected to reach 950,000 bags, or around 57,000 metric tons, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase. The report linked the growth to expanding acreage and improved farm productivity across key coffee-growing regions. 

The sector’s recovery is being supported by government interventions aimed at revitalising coffee farming and improving farmer incomes. Through the New Kenya Planters Co-operative Union, farmers are receiving subsidised seedlings and fertilisers through a revolving fund programme intended to lower production costs and improve yields. 

The programme is currently being implemented across Central Kenya, Eastern Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley, where coffee remains a major source of income for rural households. Several county governments have also introduced additional subsidy programmes to encourage farmers to expand coffee acreage and improve farm management practices. 

The interventions are expected to attract younger farmers into the industry, which has faced labour shortages and declining participation in recent years. 

Kenya continues to hold a strategic position in global coffee markets because it exclusively produces Arabica coffee, a premium variety known for its high quality and strong demand in specialty coffee markets. Arabica coffee typically commands higher prices than Robusta, strengthening Kenya’s competitiveness in international trade. 

Global coffee prices have remained elevated due to supply shortages in major producing countries and weather-related disruptions affecting global output. The higher prices are expected to boost Kenya’s foreign exchange earnings as export volumes increase. 

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows coffee export revenues doubled between 2021 and 2025, rising from 26.1 billion Kenyan shillings to 52.05 billion shillings. 

Despite the positive outlook, the industry continues to face challenges including high production costs, ageing plantations, limited access to affordable credit and climate variability.  

Stakeholders are increasingly promoting climate-smart agriculture, improved irrigation systems and disease-resistant coffee varieties to strengthen long-term productivity and resilience across the sector. 

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