Kenya sugar prices drop 4.37% in February after exit from COMESA import safeguards
Kenya’s retail sugar prices recorded the steepest monthly drop in nearly two years after the country exited COMESA import safeguards, allowing cheaper regional sugar supplies into the market.
KENYA – Retail sugar prices in Kenya recorded their sharpest month-on-month decline in nearly two years in February following the government’s decision to remove long-standing import safeguards and open the market to cheaper regional supplies.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) showed the average retail price of sugar dropped by 4.37% to Kes166.56 per kilogramme in February, down from Kes 174.17 in January.
The decline represents the steepest monthly fall in 22 months since prices dropped 8.31% to Kes 173.70 in April 2024.
The latest decrease also extends a broader trend of price reductions, pushing the retail price to its lowest level in 11 months since sugar averaged KSh166.08 per kilogramme in March 2025.
The price shift follows a policy change announced in early January by the Kenya Sugar Board confirming that Kenya had formally exited the sugar import safeguard regime under the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) after 24 years.
Since 2001, Kenya had relied on the regional safeguard arrangement—renewed eight times—to shield its domestic sugar industry from cheaper imports.
The framework allowed the country to import up to 350,000 tonnes of sugar annually from the 21-member trading bloc to address supply shortages while protecting local millers.
The safeguards primarily supported domestic sugar factories, particularly state-owned mills in western Kenya that have faced persistent challenges including heavy debt burdens, aging machinery and inconsistent sugarcane supplies.
In May 2025, the government leased four state-owned sugar mills; Nzoia Sugar Company, Chemelil Sugar Company, South Nyanza Sugar Company and Muhoroni Sugar Company, to private investors.
The move was intended to improve operational efficiency, modernise equipment and strengthen management systems as part of preparations to exit the safeguard regime.
A November 2025 report by the World Bank Group and the Competition Authority of Kenya found that domestic sugar production costs were significantly higher than those of imported sugar.
According to the report, ex-factory sugar prices rose by more than 40% annually in both 2022 and 2023, far exceeding increases in sugarcane prices and diverging from global market trends.
Despite the policy shift, critics have raised concerns about its potential impact on local producers. Saulo Busolo, a former chairperson of the Kenya Sugar Board and a farmer, questioned whether the leasing of mills had actually lowered production costs.
“Has this leasing translated into a reduction of cost? These private millers are being destroyed by these policies,” Busolo said, warning that liberalisation could expose domestic producers to intensified competition.
The end of the safeguard system now allows traders to source sugar more freely from regional markets, a change that appears to be reflected in retail price movements.
Meanwhile, domestic sugar production has experienced sharp fluctuations in recent years. Output fell to 472,773 metric tonnes in 2023 before rebounding to 815,454 tonnes in 2024, largely due to favourable weather and subsidised fertiliser.
However, production declined again last year by 24.81% to 613,169 tonnes, highlighting persistent structural challenges facing the sector.
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