Molson Coors forecasts profit decline of up to 15% in FY26 

USA – Molson Coors has forecast a sharp decline in annual profit, citing higher aluminum tariffs and weaker spending among price-sensitive consumers as major challenges for 2026.  

The brewer expects adjusted earnings per share to fall between 11% and 15%, significantly below analysts’ expectations of a 1.9% increase to US$5.48, according to data compiled by London Stock Exchange Group. 

The weak outlook comes as newly appointed chief executive Rahul Goyal works to stabilize the business following a difficult 2025 marked by declining beer demand, lower volumes, and persistent inflation.  

“We made the necessary difficult decisions in our business to course correct and set ourselves up for the future,” Goyal said. 

Consumer trends continue to weigh on the beer industry, with more health-conscious consumers shifting toward non-alcoholic beverages and energy drinks.  

The growing use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and reduced alcohol consumption among younger consumers, particularly Generation Z, have also contributed to weaker demand for beer and spirits. 

Rising aluminum costs have emerged as a key financial burden for the company. A spike in the aluminum premium in the U.S. Midwest contributed to an 8.1% increase in Molson Coors’ cost of goods sold per hectoliter, reflecting the brewer’s heavy reliance on aluminum cans for packaging. 

Chief financial officer Tracey Joubert warned that commodity inflation would continue to affect profitability. She said aluminum costs alone are expected to reduce profit by approximately US$125 million.  

Despite these challenges, Joubert indicated that revenue trends could show some improvement during the year. 

Molson Coors projects net sales in 2026 to range from a 1% decline to a 1% increase compared with the previous year, slightly better than analysts’ expectations of a 0.1% drop. However, recent quarterly results highlight ongoing pressure on performance. 

Net sales for the quarter ended December 31 fell 2.7% year over year to US$2.66 billion on a reported basis and declined 4% on a constant-currency basis.  

The decrease was driven primarily by lower shipment volumes across the Americas and EMEA and APAC regions, although improved pricing and favorable currency movements provided partial support. 

Financial volumes declined 7.7% year over year, while brand volumes fell 4.5%, reflecting weaker shipments across key markets.  

Gross profit dropped 6.7% to US$968.3 million, and gross margin declined 150 basis points to 36.4%, underscoring the financial impact of rising costs and softer demand across global beer markets. 

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