Nigeria’s cocoa export earnings triple in Q1 2025 amid global price rally 

NIGERIA – Nigeria has recorded unprecedented gains from the global cocoa price surge, with export earnings more than tripling in the first quarter of 2025, according to investment group Norrenberger’s latest economic outlook. 

The report shows that cocoa receipts rose to N1.23 trillion (US$800.2M) between January and March, representing a 220 percent increase from N384.1 billion (US$249.9M) in the same period of 2024. 

This marks Nigeria’s highest-ever quarterly revenue from cocoa, underscoring its increasing role in diversifying the nation’s foreign exchange sources beyond oil. 

Norrenberger noted that the windfall was driven by elevated international prices combined with stronger export volumes. “As one of Nigeria’s most valuable non-oil exports, cocoa provides a vital stream of foreign exchange at a time when oil revenues remain vulnerable to global price fluctuations and domestic production constraints,” the firm stated in its H2 2025 Economic Outlook. 

Global cocoa markets have experienced sharp volatility over the past 18 months. Supply disruptions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—responsible for about two-thirds of global production—pushed New York futures above US$12,000 a tonne late in 2024. 

Prices later corrected in March 2025, falling by over 30 percent on expectations of a stronger mid-crop, before recovering to trade between US$9,000 and US$9,800 a tonne in June. By the end of the month, benchmark prices stood at US$8,101, still 20 percent higher than a year earlier. 

The rally has provided a boost to Nigeria’s current account and helped ease persistent pressure on the naira. Analysts say the additional foreign exchange inflows have expanded the central bank’s capacity to stabilize the market. 

At the grassroots level, the gains are being felt in cocoa-producing communities, where higher earnings are stimulating rural economies, generating jobs, and strengthening agricultural value chains. 

“Increased earnings can stimulate rural economies, create jobs, and strengthen agricultural value chains, providing critical support for inclusive growth,” the Norrenberger report emphasized. 

However, concerns persist about the sustainability of this boom. Structural challenges such as aging cocoa trees, inadequate financing for farmers, and poor infrastructure continue to hamper productivity. The report warns that unless these obstacles are resolved, Nigeria could lose momentum once the favorable price cycle ends. 

Norrenberger further highlighted the importance of investment in local value addition. Expanding processing capacity could not only boost foreign exchange earnings but also create industrial jobs and strengthen Nigeria’s position in global cocoa supply chains. 

Looking forward, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projects a surplus of 142,000 metric tonnes for the 2024/25 season, breaking a four-year streak of deficits. 

The surplus is expected to stem from a 7.8 percent increase in global cocoa output to 4.84 million tonnes, while grindings—an indicator of demand—are forecast to decline by 4.8 percent to 4.65 million tonnes as high prices temper consumption in key markets. 

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