USDA forecasts 512% surge in US imports of Mexican sugar for 2026-27 marketing year

USA – The United States is expected to increase its imports of Mexican sugar to 1.15 million metric tons during the 2026-2027 marketing year, according to projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), marking a significant recovery in bilateral sugar trade. 

The projected import volume represents a 512% increase from the previous marketing cycle and is expected to reshape regional sugar trade while improving returns for Mexico’s sugar industry. 

According to USDA estimates, the increase could generate up to US$272 million in additional revenue for Mexican producers, reversing the sharp decline experienced in recent years as exports to the United States fell significantly. 

U.S. imports of Mexican sugar had dropped to approximately 200,000 metric tons during the marketing year ending in September, compared with more than one million metric tons in 2022. The decline prompted bilateral discussions between Mexican and U.S. officials beginning in late 2025. 

Mexico’s presidency said the increased export volume “could generate a potential increase of up to 4.76 billion pesos, about US$272 million, in the price paid by the sugar industry to about 170,000 Mexican sugarcane producers.” 

Sugar trade between Mexico and the United States has been governed by suspension agreements since late 2014, according to background information published by the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System (SELA). The agreements were introduced to regulate exports and resolve trade disputes between the two countries. 

In June 2017, both governments reached an agreement in principle that reduced the share of refined Mexican sugar permitted in U.S. imports to 30% from the previous 53% limit, while increasing the proportion of raw sugar, according to SELA. 

However, the agreement faced opposition from the U.S. sugar industry. Then-Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Mexico had accepted nearly all of the industry’s requests, but U.S. producers still declined to support the proposed terms. 

According to the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System, U.S. refiners argued that high-quality Mexican raw sugar was reaching consumers directly instead of being processed through domestic refineries. 

The dispute involved a coalition of U.S. sugarcane and sugar beet producers, together with ASR Group, the maker of Domino Sugar, and Imperial Sugar. Both companies maintained that the 2014 agreement did not provide sufficient raw sugar supplies for their refining operations and urged the U.S. government to terminate the pact, according to the regional organization. 

Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.