Global cocoa prices to drop over 50% in 2026 as supply recovers – World Bank
World Bank forecasts cocoa prices to fall by over 50% in 2026 as global supply recovers, signaling a sharp correction after recent record highs.
GHANA – Global cocoa prices are projected to decline sharply in 2026 after reaching historic highs, according to the latest outlook from the World Bank.
The forecast points to a significant correction as global supply conditions improve following recent shortages.
In its April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank estimates cocoa prices will fall from approximately US$7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to about US$3.80 per kilogram in 2026, representing a 51.3 percent drop. Prices are then expected to edge slightly higher to around US$4.20 per kilogram in 2027.
“The sharp drop reflects expectations that global cocoa supply will gradually recover after severe shortages that drove prices to record levels over the past two years,” the report stated.
The projections form part of a broader trend identified in the report, which anticipates a cooling in beverage commodity prices. The beverage price index, which includes cocoa and coffee, is expected to decline significantly in 2026 after surging in 2024 and 2025.
According to the World Bank, cocoa was among the commodities that experienced exceptional price spikes during the recent supply crisis. However, improving production conditions and adjustments across global supply chains are expected to ease market pressures.
“Despite the projected decline, cocoa prices may remain relatively elevated compared with historical averages, reflecting continued volatility in agricultural commodity markets,” the report noted.
The expected price drop could have implications for major cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together account for the majority of global cocoa supply.
A rebound in production combined with lower prices may affect export revenues and farmer incomes.
The report also highlighted that commodity markets remain sensitive to global economic trends, geopolitical developments, and weather-related disruptions that influence agricultural output.
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