Ethiopia’s coffee production forecast to reach record 11.6M bags in 2025/26 amid reforms, climate gains 

ETHIOPIA – Ethiopia’s coffee production is forecast to reach a record 11.6 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2025/26 marketing year, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA).  

This represents a 9% increase from the previous year, driven by favorable weather conditions, regeneration of aging coffee trees, and adoption of higher-quality seedlings and inputs. 

Government campaigns promoting stumping—deep pruning of old trees—have been implemented on more than 450,000 hectares, with farmers also receiving improved seedlings, fertilizers, and training.  

These efforts are expected to increase average yields to 0.88 metric tons per hectare across an expanded harvested area of 790,000 hectares. 

Economic reforms, including the adoption of a market-based exchange rate, have enhanced the competitiveness of Ethiopian coffee in international markets and increased incomes for local farmers.  

Policy changes allowing more producers to export directly are projected to boost coffee exports to 7.8 million bags in 2025/26, up from 5.63 million bags in 2023/24.  

Export earnings hit a historic US$1.7 billion in 2023/24, with Ethiopia aiming to become the world’s second-largest coffee exporter by 2033 under its Comprehensive Coffee Development Strategy. 

Top export destinations by volume include Germany, Saudi Arabia, Belgium, the United States, South Korea, and Japan. Export prices surged from 270–280 cents per pound in mid-2024 to 423 cents per pound by April 2025, reflecting tighter global supply. 

Domestic coffee consumption remains strong and is forecast to rise to 3.7 million bags, supported by Ethiopia’s rich coffee culture, urbanization, and growing interest among youth. Per capita consumption is estimated at approximately 2.3 kilograms. 

Recent reforms have also introduced a minimum export price policy, adjusted weekly to align with international trends and curb informal trade.  

Additionally, foreign investors are now permitted to export raw coffee, and contract registration oversight has shifted to the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority. Banks can issue export permits, and contract registration is no longer confined to the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange. 

Ethiopia’s coffee sector continues to demonstrate resilience and growth potential amid global challenges, positioning the country for sustained leadership in the international coffee market. 

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