Geopolitics, avian influenza significant factors in shaping global poultry – RaboResearch

WORLD – Poultry markets are coming under increased strain as avian influenza outbreaks and geopolitical uncertainty disrupt global trade flows.

A recent surge in bird flu cases has forced culls and triggered trade restrictions, affecting meat exports from major producers including Brazil, the United States, and several European nations.

Brazil, one of the world’s largest poultry exporters, has seen around 40% of its chicken exports blocked by key buyers following a wave of infections in Rio Grande do Sul.

The European Union is also facing significant disruptions, with Poland, Hungary, and northern Italy reporting high numbers of outbreaks between March and April, impacting meat supply chains.

In the United States, poultry production continues to be affected by ongoing outbreaks, reducing output and raising concerns about long-term stability in the sector.

The situation is especially tense in the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly 20% of global poultry imports, where any escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict could severely impact trade routes and poultry availability.

Analysts warn that if the regional conflict intensifies, poultry exports to Middle Eastern markets could experience further delays or cancellations, compounding the effects of supply chain shocks caused by the flu.

Egg and hatchery challenges intensify supply pressure

Beyond meat exports, the egg sector is also feeling the effects, particularly in the US where prices hit record highs in early 2025 due to supply shortages.

Europe’s hatching egg market is also in trouble, with outbreaks among parent flocks delaying restocking, and in Poland, widespread culling has worsened the supply shortage.

The combined impact has pushed up prices for chicken, duck, and eggs across multiple markets, with no clear signs of relief in the short term.

Feed costs are currently stable, but producers worry that any increase in input prices could place additional pressure on already strained operations.

China, Southeast Asia, and several African countries face a particularly uncertain trade outlook as a result of high import tariffs and shifting global policies.

Trade policy remains a major wildcard, with US tariffs on seafood potentially flooding Southeast Asian markets and reducing demand for locally produced poultry.

According to RaboResearch analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder, global poultry production growth for 2025 has been revised downward from between 2.5% and 3% to just 2% to 2.5%.

Mulder also indicated that if political tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, global production figures could be revised down again.

The US trade war adds another layer of complexity, with the possibility of either intensified global tariff conflicts or new agreements that could alter poultry export dynamics.

Despite all these issues, the chicken market remains steady due to consistent demand and manageable feed prices, though uncertainties continue to loom over the rest of the year.

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