Brazil beef exports forecast to fall 10% as China tariff pressure tightens
Exports expected to slow as shipment window closes early
BRAZIL – Brazil’s beef exports are projected to decline by 10% in 2026 compared with the previous year, according to the Brazilian beef exporters association ABIEC, as reported by Reuters, after China imposed a 55% tariff on imports that exceed its quota limits.
ABIEC president Roberto Perosa told journalists that shipments to China could halt around June, as the annual quota is expected to be filled ahead of schedule, leaving domestic consumption to absorb the surplus volumes.
China, which remains Brazil’s largest trading partner and the main destination for its beef exports, introduced the tariff this year as part of efforts to shield its local cattle industry from foreign competition.
The current annual quota for Brazilian beef exports to China is set at 1.1 million metric tons, significantly lower than the 1.7 million metric tons shipped last year, a level that accounted for nearly half of Brazil’s total beef exports.
Exporters have accelerated shipments in recent months to avoid higher tariff exposure, pushing the quota closer to full utilisation, with some of the volume comprising beef shipped at the end of 2025 that only cleared into China in early 2026.
Perosa said there is no alternative export destination capable of replacing the scale of Chinese demand in the short term, leaving Brazil heavily exposed to policy shifts in the Asian market.
He added that Brazil is looking to expand access to Japan as a potential additional outlet. However, any approval for wider exports would be needed before it could meaningfully offset losses from China.
Earlier projections from ABIEC suggested that exports would remain broadly stable, supported by expectations of new market openings and diversification, but the updated outlook has shifted as conditions tightened, with the association representing major meatpackers including JBS, MBRF and Minerva.
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