Australia projects steady rise in chicken, egg output through 2031

AUSTRALIA – Australia’s poultry sector is expected to expand over the next several years as consumption of chicken and eggs continues to climb, according to new projections from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

The agency’s March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report indicates that national chicken meat production is set to increase by 2% to reach 1.66 million metric tons, supported by gains in efficiency and additional processing capacity.

This outlook builds on recent performance, as the industry processed about 752 million chickens in 2024-2025, producing nearly 1.54 million metric tons of meat while exporting 46,500 metric tons, mainly to Pacific markets such as Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu.

For the ongoing 2025-2026 period, slaughter volumes are projected to rise to 774 million birds, with total output climbing to 1.58 million metric tons and exports increasing to 62,700 metric tons.

Looking further ahead, production is expected to maintain an upward trend, reaching 828 million birds slaughtered, 1.74 million metric tons of meat, and export volumes of 66,800 metric tons by 2030-2031.

Production trends and pricing outlook

The report attributes this growth to continued strong domestic demand and a gradual increase in carcass weights, reflecting a shift toward larger birds suited for processed products and portioned cuts.

Despite higher output, average unit prices are forecast to ease, with the total value of the chicken meat sector estimated at US$3.0 billion (AUD4.3 billion) in 2026-2027, representing only a slight increase.

Producer prices in that period are expected to fall by 1% compared to the previous year, or about three Australian cents per kilogram, placing them 8% below the inflation-adjusted 10-year average.

Egg sector recovery and ongoing risks

Meanwhile, Australia’s egg industry is recovering after outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza linked to the H7N8 strain in 2024 and 2025 reduced the laying flock and pushed prices higher.

Producers have since rebuilt flocks, and egg output is forecast to rebound in 2025-2026 and continue improving into the following year as demand remains firm.

Sector value for eggs is projected at about US$0.98 billion (AUD1.4 billion) for the current year, representing a 1% decline from the previous peak but still 15% above the long-term average.

While prices are expected to soften slightly in 2026-2027, continued consumer demand for affordable protein options is likely to limit any sharp declines.

At the same time, the report highlights ongoing risks from biosecurity threats, particularly the potential entry of the H5N1 virus via migratory birds, which could pose higher exposure risks for free-range systems.

In addition, the expansion of urban areas is expected to push poultry farms further from population centres, increasing transport costs and adding pressure to production logistics.

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