El Niño threat raises concerns for Chilean, Peruvian blueberry exports, quality risks loom

SOUTH AMERICA – The possible development of an intense El Niño event is raising concerns for blueberry exports along South America’s Pacific coast, with NOAA estimating a 61% probability that El Niño could develop between May and July 2026 and persist through the end of the year.

In Peru, SENAMHI and ENFEN have warned of a possible transition to warmer conditions from June, while Chile’s MeteoChile stated that the phenomenon “is beginning to take shape.”

For the blueberry sector, the risks extend beyond visible field damage. Effects may appear later in the supply chain through reduced firmness, condition problems, and a shorter post-harvest life, potentially affecting commercial performance in destination markets.

El Niño affects long-term investment in South American blueberries by introducing climate uncertainty, complicating production forecasting.

Although increased rainfall may initially seem beneficial in water-scarce regions, concentrated precipitation over short periods can saturate soils, damage infrastructure, and challenge production systems adapted to dry conditions.

Consequently, investors face higher risks of crop loss and quality degradation, which can reduce returns and discourage investment in expansion.

Global importers should monitor several infrastructure vulnerabilities during extreme weather events. These include drainage system capacity, soil management protocols, preventive phytosanitary programmes, and logistics response capabilities.

In blueberries, saturated soils can cause root stress, reduced nutrient uptake, increased disease pressure, and physiological disorders that affect fruit quality. In an export market where value is often determined on arrival at the destination, changes in condition can alter commercial returns.

Additionally, supply disruptions from Chile and Peru could reshape global competition by creating opportunities for alternative suppliers operating under more stable conditions.

Blueberry exporters are operating in a market where supply consistency has become a requirement. Any disruption affecting quality or logistics may undermine competitiveness relative to suppliers from Mexico, Morocco, or South Africa.

However, Chile’s export production is concentrated in regions vulnerable to heavy rainfall, while Peru faces risks linked to temperature anomalies and coastal logistics disruptions.

Although climate monitoring now provides earlier warnings than in previous decades, industry preparedness remains a key factor in managing operational risks linked to El Niño.

Therefore, importers heavily reliant on Chilean or Peruvian blueberries should consider developing alternative supply relationships with African producers to hedge against El Niño-driven disruptions.

Those who prepare now will secure consistent inventory when competitors face shortages.

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