Ethiopia set to become World’s fourth largest coffee producer in 2026/27 – USDA  

ETHIOPIA – Ethiopia is projected to overtake Indonesia as the world’s fourth-largest coffee producer in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture. 

The USDA Coffee Annual report forecasts Ethiopia’s coffee production at 12.1 million 60-kilogram bags during the 2026/27 season, compared to Indonesia’s projected 11.38 million bags. If achieved, it would mark the third time in five years that Ethiopia has surpassed Indonesia in coffee output, following the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons. 

The projected growth reflects favorable weather conditions and structural changes within Ethiopia’s coffee sector. While excessive rainfall disrupted Robusta flowering in Indonesia during mid-2025, Ethiopia benefited from improved rainfall patterns and stronger agronomic conditions across major coffee-growing regions. 

The increase would also extend Ethiopia’s coffee production growth streak to four consecutive years. National output rose from 11.46 million bags in 2024/25 to 11.56 million bags in 2025/26 and is forecast to climb further in 2026/27.  

Over the last two decades, Ethiopia’s coffee production has nearly tripled from approximately 4.5 million bags recorded in 2005/06. 

The USDA attributed the expansion to favorable climatic conditions, government-backed rehabilitation programmes, increased private investment and gradual modernization within the sector.  

Ethiopia’s harvested coffee area is expected to reach 800,000 hectares in 2026/27, while the number of bearing coffee trees is projected to increase to 2 billion. 

Despite the growth, Ethiopia’s coffee industry remains largely dominated by smallholder farmers. According to the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority, approximately 5.9 million farmers are engaged in coffee production, with smallholders accounting for nearly 90% of total national output. 

Productivity gains are increasingly being supported through practices such as pruning, composting, soil management and tree stumping to rehabilitate ageing plantations.  

The USDA report noted that nearly 70% of Ethiopia’s coffee trees are considered old, with some estimated to be more than 100 years old. However, rejuvenated stumped trees are beginning to deliver significantly higher yields. 

The Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute has also introduced more than 50 improved hybrid coffee varieties with higher yields and stronger disease resistance. 

Export growth has further strengthened Ethiopia’s global coffee position. During the 2024/25 marketing year, the country exported 7.43 million bags valued at US$2.89 billion, representing a 31.9% increase in volume and a 69.4% increase in value compared to the previous year.  

Coffee now generates nearly one-third of Ethiopia’s total export revenue, while exports to China surged 264.1% to 670,000 bags valued at US$274 million. 

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