ICCO cuts global cocoa surplus forecast to 37,000 T
Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire receive higher living-income reference prices as the global cocoa market faces changing production, demand and weather conditions.
GLOBAL – The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised down its estimate of the 2024/25 global cocoa surplus to 37,000 tonnes, marking the third consecutive downward revision this year.
The estimate was published in ICCO’s latest Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, which covers the 2025/26 cocoa year with data available through early August.
ICCO temporarily withheld production and grindings figures for 2025/26 but updated its 2024/25 estimates. World gross cocoa production increased 8.5% year on year to 4.733 million tonnes, while global grindings fell 3.3% to 4.649 million tonnes.
End-of-season stocks increased almost 3% to 1.309 million tonnes, taking the stocks-to-grindings ratio to 28.2%.
The surplus estimate has declined from 75,000 tonnes in February to 48,000 tonnes in May and 37,000 tonnes in the latest bulletin.
ICCO said cocoa futures prices during the April-to-June quarter remained highly sensitive to demand changes, weather developments and production risks in major cocoa-growing countries. It also flagged concerns over a potential El Niño event later in 2026 and its possible impact on prices.
Global exports of cocoa beans and semi-finished products fell 2.8% year on year to 2.09 million tonnes in the January-to-March quarter.
Fairtrade raises farmer income benchmark
Meanwhile, Fairtrade Africa has urged cocoa producers, traders, regulators and governments to work together to narrow the gap between farmers’ earnings and a living income.
The call came at Fairtrade Africa’s Change Day 2026 in Accra on August 27, following the publication of new Fairtrade Living Income Reference Prices for cocoa from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
The two countries account for roughly 60% of global cocoa production. Ghana’s reference price was set at GH¢45.40 per kilogramme, about US$3.95, a 10% increase from the previous level. Côte d’Ivoire’s stands at 1,758 CFA francs per kilogramme, about US$3.11, following a 47% increase.
Fairtrade Africa Commercial Director Paul Colditz said the new figures give “the industry a clear benchmark for closing the gap” between farm-gate prices and a living income for cocoa-growing households.
Executive Director Isaac Tongola said the reference price sets a floor buyers can be pushed towards, describing it as a level intended to ensure farmers “can live” a decent life from cocoa sales.
The reference price forms part of a broader Fairtrade model that includes the Fairtrade Minimum Price and Fairtrade Premium for producer organisations.
The new reference prices are above regulated farm-gate rates in both countries and are due to take effect at the start of the harvest season, expected around September or October.
Fairtrade Africa said its West Africa Cocoa Programme has reached more than 48,000 beneficiaries in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Poverty among beneficiaries has fallen to 17%, while the share earning a living income has risen from 28% to 48%.
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