India’s sugar exports set to miss target as Brazilian supplies drive down global prices 

INDIA – India’s sugar exports are projected to fall below 800,000 metric tons this season, missing the government’s 1 million-ton export quota as rising Brazilian supplies and weaker global prices undercut Indian shipments, according to trade and government officials cited by Reuters. 

In January 2025, India—the world’s largest sugar producer—authorized the export of 1 million tons for the current season ending September 30, 2025.  

The move aimed to help mills offload surplus stocks onto international markets while supporting domestic prices, which had slipped to their lowest level in 18 months. 

Initial sales were strong early in the season, but overseas shipments slowed sharply in recent months as Brazil’s sugar output increased and international futures prices fell to a four-year low. Mills in India have so far contracted around 750,000 tons for export and physically shipped about 720,000 tons.  

Officials said that even under optimistic projections, additional export deals are unlikely to exceed 25,000 tons this month, bringing total shipments to roughly 775,000 tons for the 2024–25 season. 

Officials added that the slower pace could prompt Indian mills to request that the government roll over the remaining 200,000 tons of unshipped quota into the new season beginning October 1. 

Traditionally, Indian sugar has enjoyed a freight advantage in Asian markets over Brazilian shipments. However, recent data show Brazilian sugar trading at least US$25 per ton cheaper than Indian sugar, eroding India’s competitive edge. Rising domestic sugar prices above global benchmarks have also pushed Indian mills to prioritize local sales over exports. 

India exports sugar to countries including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the United Arab Emirates. It was the world’s second-largest exporter during the five years through 2022–23, averaging 6.8 million tons annually. 

Looking ahead, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projects production at 34.90 million tons for the 2025–26 season starting October. Favorable monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka, boosted by abundant August rainfall, have supported healthy crop growth.  

However, localized declines in flood-affected regions may partially offset gains. ISMA will reassess crop conditions and release its first advance estimate between October and November 2025. 

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