Moroccan avocado output drops 50% in 2025–2026 on weather, port delays
For Middle Eastern food investors, Morocco’s production volatility signals both risk and opportunity.
MOROCCO – Morocco’s avocado sector has experienced a significant downturn in the 2025–2026 season, with total production remaining below 70,000 tons and exports exceeding 50,000 tons, representing a decline of approximately 50% compared to the previous season.
Abdellah El Yamlahi, head of the Moroccan Avocado Association, described the season as “extremely difficult” for producers, with reduced yields and export volumes. “The figures show a clear decline in productivity and quantities directed at foreign markets compared to last season’s exceptional performance,” he said.
The decline stems from multiple factors. First, intense, hot, and dry Chergui winds during the summer affected orchard performance and reduced yields. Second, winter operations faced additional disruptions due to temporary closures at Tangier Med Port caused by adverse weather, leading to shipment delays to European markets.
Secondly, Moroccan avocados also faced stiff competition in Europe from suppliers such as Israel, the Dominican Republic, Chile, Peru, and Spain, though competitive pressure eased later in the season.
For Middle Eastern food investors, Morocco’s production volatility signals both risk and opportunity. The 50% drop in output will likely tighten supply to European markets, potentially opening opportunities for East African producers to fill gaps.
However, for investors already positioned in Morocco, the downturn highlights the importance of geographic diversification within the country.
Avocado cultivation has expanded in recent years, particularly in Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima and Rabat-Salé-Kenitra, supported by sustained investment. These northern regions, where new orchards are being established, may offer more stable production conditions than traditional growing areas.
Environmental concerns remain part of the sector’s risk profile. El Yamlahi addressed water use, stating that avocado production levels are comparable to those of other crops grown in Morocco and are mainly located in areas without severe water constraints.
This distinction is critical for investors evaluating sustainability credentials, as cultivation in water-stressed regions could face future regulatory or reputational challenges. Additionally, producers are now focusing on the next season, with orchards currently in the flowering stage.
For regional stakeholders, the Moroccan avocado downturn offers lessons in agricultural investment: weather volatility, logistics disruptions, and international competition are persistent risks that require diversification strategies across geographic regions, crop types, and market destinations.
As Moroccan producers work to recover, investors with capital for irrigation technology, protected cultivation, or post-harvest infrastructure could help stabilize supply while capturing value from a sector with demonstrated long-term demand.
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