UN warns livestock antibiotic use could rise nearly 30% by 2040

GLOBAL – The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that antibiotic use in livestock production could increase by nearly 30% by 2040 if current production and consumption patterns continue.

The warning was presented in a new assessment released at the FAO headquarters in Rome, where the agency said rising antimicrobial use in animals could accelerate antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a challenge it identified as a growing risk to public health, food systems and economic development.

According to the report, global antimicrobial use in livestock is projected to reach approximately 143,481 tonnes by 2040 under a business-as-usual scenario, representing a 29.5% increase compared with 2019 levels.

The FAO expects Asia and the Pacific region to account for nearly 65% of global livestock antimicrobial consumption by 2040, while South America is projected to represent about 19% of total use.

Although Africa’s share of global antimicrobial use is forecast to remain comparatively lower, the report identified the continent as one of the fastest-growing regions in terms of antibiotic consumption in livestock production.

Meanwhile, antimicrobial use is expected to decline slightly in North America and remain relatively stable across Europe, where stricter regulations and reduced reliance on routine preventive treatments have already influenced industry practices.

The assessment also introduced a new livestock biomass conversion methodology designed to improve the measurement of antimicrobial use intensity and provide a more consistent basis for monitoring progress and comparing results across regions.

FAO researchers found that changes in livestock biomass have a limited effect on overall antimicrobial consumption, while reductions in use intensity offer a more effective route to lowering total volumes.

The report indicated that a 30% reduction in antimicrobial use intensity could substantially reduce antibiotic consumption compared with the business-as-usual pathway, while a 50% reduction combined with slower livestock biomass growth could cut usage by more than half by 2040.

In addition, the agency highlighted ongoing international efforts to restrict and gradually eliminate antimicrobial growth promoters used in animal production systems.

While acknowledging that growth promoters can improve feed efficiency and animal performance in the short term, particularly in areas with elevated disease risks, the FAO said the long-term costs associated with antimicrobial resistance are likely to outweigh those benefits.

The report estimated that cumulative livestock production losses linked to a high antimicrobial resistance scenario could reach about US$318 billion by 2040, compared with roughly US$53 billion under the most severe antimicrobial growth promoter phase-out scenario.

FAO Assistant Director-General and Chief Veterinarian Thanawat Tiensin said preserving the effectiveness of antimicrobials should be treated as a global public good, requiring coordinated action, investment and policy support.

To support the transition, the agency called for a combination of regulatory measures, financial incentives and investments in veterinary services, disease surveillance, diagnostics, vaccination programmes, biosecurity and animal husbandry practices.

The FAO estimated that at least US$28.4 billion in transitional investment would be required to address the short-term costs associated with reducing unnecessary antimicrobial use in livestock production.

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