US beef exports to Japan decline as cattle shortages tighten domestic supply
The US cattle industry is facing reduced herd numbers, high cattle prices, and weaker processing activity as supply constraints continue.
USA – US beef shipments to Japan totalled 57,396 metric tons in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 4% decline from the same period last year, while export value fell 3% to US$436.8 million, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture compiled by the US Meat Export Federation.
Although sales of variety meat products increased during the period, lower exports of muscle cuts pulled overall volumes downward as Japan continued to rank as the largest market for US beef exports by volume and the second-largest by value after South Korea.
Meanwhile, the US beef industry is entering 2026 under pressure from continuing supply shortages and market instability following a difficult 2025 marked by disruptions across cattle production and processing operations, according to a quarterly report released by CoBank.
The report stated that the closure of live cattle imports from Mexico following the outbreak of New World Screwworm, combined with processing plant closures, downsizing efforts, and stronger dependence on imported beef supplies, contributed to volatility across the sector during the previous year.
At the same time, cattle prices across all production stages climbed to record levels in 2025, allowing cow-calf producers and feedlot operators to post strong financial returns while beef processors experienced record losses as limited cattle availability increased procurement costs.
Herd contraction limits supply
According to CoBank, the US beef cow herd has contracted by nearly 3.8 million head since reaching its peak in 2019, with the sharpest declines in the Northern and Southern Plains, where drought conditions and poor pasture quality reduced forage availability.
The reduction in cattle numbers has also been compounded by fewer feeder cattle imports from Mexico, increasing competition among feedlots and meat processors seeking available animals for slaughter and finishing operations.
Federally inspected slaughter activity during 2026 has also slowed due to supply shortages and winter weather disruptions in the first quarter, with year-to-date slaughter volumes falling by 547,000 head, a 7.9% decline from the previous year.
Feedlot margins weaken
Profitability within feedlots has also become more uneven as calculations from Iowa State University showed that cattle placed in feedlots during December and marketed in May are expected to generate profits of about US$350 per head, while cattle entering feedlots in March and sold in August are projected to record losses of roughly US$200 per head.
CoBank stated that cattle prices are expected to remain elevated even as herd rebuilding gradually begins because fewer animals are available to enter feedlots, adding that producers may increasingly rely on hedging and other risk management tools as uncertainty continues across the market.
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