USDA forecasts record global coffee production and exports in 2026/27

GLOBAL – Global coffee production and exports are projected to reach record levels in the 2026/27 marketing year, supported by strong harvests in major producing countries that are expected to create a substantial supply surplus despite record global consumption, according to the latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. 

The USDA forecasts global coffee production to increase by 10.8 million bags, or 6%, to a record 189.667 million bags. Arabica production is expected to climb to an all-time high of 105.867 million bags, representing a 12.1% increase, while Robusta production is projected to decline slightly by 0.7% to 83.8 million bags, remaining the second-highest level on record after last year’s historic harvest. 

Global coffee exports in all forms are forecast to rise by 8.9% to a record 158.874 million bags, while green coffee exports are expected to increase by 9.9% to an unprecedented 131.4 million bags. 

The report projects record production in Brazil, Vietnam, Ethiopia and Uganda, more than offsetting lower harvests expected in Indonesia and India. Colombia and Central America are also forecast to record higher production. 

Brazil is expected to produce 71.9 million bags, an increase of 8.9 million bags or 14.1% compared with the previous season. Arabica production is forecast to rise by 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million after favourable rainfall during flowering supported fruit development and near-record yields in Minas Gerais.  

Robusta production, however, is projected to ease by 600,000 bags to 24.4 million due to cooler temperatures and higher rainfall in Espírito Santo. Brazil’s coffee exports are expected to surge 29.6% to 49.07 million bags, including 45 million bags of green coffee. 

Vietnam’s production is forecast to reach a record 32.5 million bags, including 31.4 million bags of Robusta, while exports are projected to increase to 28.95 million bags. Domestic consumption is also expected to reach a record five million bags. 

Colombia’s coffee production is forecast to increase by 900,000 bags to 13.4 million, with exports rising 4.6% to 13.4 million bags. Ethiopia is expected to achieve a record harvest of 12.1 million bags following investments in higher-yielding coffee varieties. 

Indonesia’s production is projected to decline by one million bags to 11.4 million due to excessive rainfall affecting Robusta-growing regions, reducing exports to 8.05 million bags. 

Global coffee consumption is forecast to reach a record 179.736 million bags, driven by continued growth in major markets. Consumption is expected to reach 42.5 million bags in the European Union, 26.95 million in the United States, and 6.75 million in China, alongside further increases in Brazil and Japan. 

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