USDA reports falling red meat output
Cattle and hog production is projected to decline, affecting meat prices.
USA – The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, demonstrating a divergence in livestock markets as beef and pork production contract while milk output grows.
Cattle production for 2025 has been lowered due to a decrease in steer and heifer slaughter and lighter average weights, despite a projected rise in cow and bull slaughter.
As a result, the USDA has revised downward its price forecast for beef in the fourth quarter of 2025, with expectations for soft prices to continue into early 2026.
Projections for 2026 beef production were also reduced, reflecting the anticipated continuation of slower fed-cattle marketings into next year.
Hog supplies are also showing signs of tightening, as slower slaughter rates in 2025 offset gains from heavier carcass weights.
Inventory data indicate smaller hog populations in 2026, prompting the USDA to increase its price outlook for pork next year even though prices late this year are expected to decline.
In contrast, dairy output is set to rise as the USDA increased milk production forecasts for both 2025 and 2026, driven by larger cow inventories and improved productivity.
Expanded milk volumes are putting downward pressure on product prices, including butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk, leading to reduced Class III and Class IV values.
The all-milk price is now projected at US$21.05 per hundredweight for 2025 and US$19.25 per hundredweight for 2026.
Despite softer domestic prices, U.S. dairy exports are expected to increase due to strong competitiveness in butter, cheese, and whey markets abroad.
The report gives producers an early perspective on how trends in slaughter, herd health, and output may influence margins and market conditions across the livestock and dairy sectors in the coming year.
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