Global coffee production to hit record 180 million bags in 2026/27 as Brazil drives supply surge – Rabobank report
Record global coffee output forecast to pressure prices as Brazil and Vietnam boost supply while mixed export and inventory trends shape market outlook.
WORLD – Global coffee production is projected to reach a record 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season, driven largely by a strong harvest in Brazil, according to a new Rabobank report.
The forecast represents an increase of about 8 million bags compared to the previous season, highlighting a significant expansion in global supply.
The expected surge has already influenced market dynamics, with coffee prices declining in recent weeks. Arabica prices fell to a 15-month low, while robusta dropped to a 6.5-month low as improved supply expectations weighed on the market.
Brazil remains central to the outlook. On February 5, the country’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, reported that Brazil’s 2026 coffee production is expected to rise by 17.2% year-on-year to a record 66.2 million bags.
Arabica production is projected to increase by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta output is expected to grow by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.
Favourable weather conditions have supported these projections. According to Somar Meteorologia, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, Minas Gerais, received 62.8 mm of rainfall during the week ended February 13, representing 138% of the historical average.
Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is also contributing to the supply increase. The country’s National Statistics Office reported that January coffee exports rose by 38.3% year-on-year to 198,000 metric tonnes. Vietnam’s total coffee exports for 2025 increased by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tonnes.
Production in Vietnam is also expected to rise. Forecasts indicate that output for the 2025/26 season will increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tonnes, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.
Inventory levels are also recovering, adding further pressure on prices. ICE-monitored arabica stocks rose to 461,829 bags in early January after falling to a 1.75-year low in November. Robusta inventories similarly rebounded to 4,662 lots after declining to a 14-month low in December.
However, some factors are providing support to prices. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that the country’s coffee exports fell by 42.4% year-on-year in January to 141,000 metric tonnes. In Colombia, the National Federation of Coffee Growers said January production declined by 34% year-on-year to 893,000 bags.
Earlier projections from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service estimated global coffee production for 2025/26 at 178.848 million bags, reflecting a 2% increase.
The report also highlighted a shift in production dynamics, with arabica output expected to decline while robusta production expands significantly.
Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.
