Kenya’s cane production to surge 37.7% in 2024/25, research finds 

KENYA – Kenya’s sugar cane production is set to see a significant boost of 37.7 percent year-on-year, increasing from 530,000 tonnes in the previous year to 730,000 tonnes in 2024/25.  

This follows a report from BMI research firm, titled “Sugar Production Review 2024,” which provides insights into the effects of the recent lifting of the ban on sugar milling in the country. 

The report attributes the projected increase in production to the four-month ban on sugar milling imposed by the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) in July 2023.  

This measure aimed to curb premature sugarcane milling, which had risen due to the below-average rainfall experienced between 2020 and 2023, a period known as the three-year La Niña.  

To address the issue, AFA only allowed factories to process sugarcane if they could prove the maturity of their crop. 

Despite the sharp decrease in production caused by the ban, the report anticipates a 3.2 percent year-on-year increase in sugar consumption, from 1.15 million tonnes in 2023/24 to 1.18 million tonnes in 2024/25

This increase in consumption is attributed to the growing demand for sugar in the bakery and hospitality sectors, supported by a lower inflation rate.  

Confectioneries and baked goods were identified by Kenya’s 2023 Economic Survey as the fastest-growing subsectors of the country’s food processing industry. 

Additionally, the growth in the tourism sector, which contributed KES1 trillion to Kenya’s economy in 2023, is expected to further drive sugar demand.  

However, despite the rise in production, Kenya’s sugar sector is projected to face a deficit, peaking at 658,000 tonnes in 2023/24 and narrowing to 496,000 tonnes in 2024/25. 

In response to these challenges, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development issued a Policy on the Revitalisation of the Sugar Industry in June 2023.  

This policy acknowledges the ongoing struggles of the sugar industry, including low productivity and quality of sugar, inefficient processing, limited capture of value added, and low adoption of technology. 

Sugarcane farmers are now calling on the government to pass the Sugar Bill 2022, which has received approval from the National Assembly and the Senate.  

The bill proposes the reintroduction of the Kenya Sugar Board to manage the sector’s affairs. It also introduces a 4 percent Sugar Development Levy on both domestic and imported sugar.  

The bill allocates 15 percent of the levy to factory development and rehabilitation, another 15 percent to research and training, and 40 percent to cane development and productivity enhancement.

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