US wine sales fell 2.1% in 2025 as report forecasts slower decline, market stabilisation from 2026 

US – Wine sales in the United States declined again in 2025 and are expected to fall once more in 2026, although at a slower pace, according to Silicon Valley Bank’s annual State of the US Wine Industry report.  

The study estimates that total wine volumes reached about 329 million cases in 2025, representing a 2.1 percent drop compared with 2024. 

In value terms, US wine sales were estimated at US$74.3 billion in 2025, down 1.6 percent from the previous year. Silicon Valley Bank said the value of sales “flattened in a discounting environment, held up by the premium segment but even that has begun to soften.” 

The report noted that pressure was most severe in the lower-priced category. “Sales of wines sold under US$12 deteriorated more rapidly, pushing production-level volumes to their lowest in more than a decade,” the bank said. 

Looking ahead, Silicon Valley Bank expects the US wine market to remain under strain in 2026, with declining volumes driven by what it called “value compression and persistent oversupply.”  

However, it added that conditions are expected to start stabilising. “The rate of deterioration will begin slowing in 2026,” the report stated. “What emerges from the data is a picture of a market still challenged but one with stabilisation on the horizon.” 

The bank also warned that parts of the industry may be forced to exit. “2026 will mark the point in this correction where some growers and wine companies that have struggled for the past five years will publicly capitulate and exit,” the report said. 

Demand softness is forecast to continue across most price points in 2026, “particularly below US$12,” while higher-priced wines will also face increasing pressure. “While the premium tier will continue to outperform the lower-priced segment, it is not insulated from broader consumer change,” the report said.  

“Inflationary fatigue, shifting discretionary priorities and a slowdown in affluent consumer spending have tempered pricing power.” 

Silicon Valley Bank also highlighted grape oversupply as a “structural headwind” for the industry. “Improvement has to start in retail sales before we can expect to see bloated wholesale inventories improve,” it said, adding that “the supply chain won’t be fully in balance at the end of 2026.” 

Beyond that, the outlook becomes more positive. The report forecasts US consumer spending on wine will “flatten through 2027 to 2028 after which we expect a shift back to modest growth.”  

It added, “We think that the steepest part of the downturn is behind us, but we aren’t out of the woods.” 

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