Rabobank forecasts global coffee surplus as Brazil’s record 2026/27 crop reshapes market outlook  

GLOBAL – The global coffee market is entering a new phase as Rabobank’s latest Coffee Outlook Q2 2026 forecasts a significant shift from years of supply shortages to a period of expanding production, driven largely by Brazil’s expected record harvest in the 2026/27 coffee season.  

In its quarterly report, Rabobank described the market transition as “from tight to light,” highlighting a structural change in global coffee supply after several seasons characterised by production deficits, declining inventories and historically high prices.  

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is expected to lead the recovery with production approaching 73 million bags during the 2026/27 cycle.  

According to the bank, the increase will be supported by the country’s favourable biennial “on-year” production cycle, improved weather conditions and continued investment by growers following the elevated coffee prices recorded during 2024 and 2025.  

The stronger Brazilian harvest is expected to contribute significantly to global coffee output, which Rabobank projects will reach approximately 180 million bags. If realised, this would represent the highest production level on record and mark a substantial expansion in worldwide coffee supplies.  

As a result, the bank forecasts a global coffee surplus of between seven million and 10 million bags during the 2026/27 coffee year. The projected surplus follows several consecutive seasons of supply deficits that tightened global availability, reduced inventories and pushed coffee futures to record highs.  

Rabobank noted that the prolonged deficit cycle between 2021 and 2024 changed purchasing behaviour across importing countries, with many buyers limiting purchases to immediate needs as prices remained elevated and supplies constrained.  

According to the report, improving production prospects are now expected to reverse that trend. As additional coffee volumes become available, particularly from Brazil, importing countries are likely to begin rebuilding inventories, easing the structural supply tightness that has characterised the market in recent years.  

The changing supply outlook has already influenced coffee prices. Arabica coffee futures have declined to multi-month lows in recent weeks as markets increasingly reflect expectations of larger global supplies.  

Rabobank said much of the recent decline has been driven by improving production prospects, although it noted that speculative fund liquidation has also contributed to the downward movement.  

The bank indicated that the recent sell-off may have moved beyond underlying market fundamentals, potentially allowing for short-term price corrections as investor positioning stabilises.  

Despite forecasting a sizeable global surplus, Rabobank does not expect a prolonged collapse in coffee prices.  

Instead, the bank projects arabica prices will gradually normalise within a range of US$2.50 to US$3.00 per pound over the medium term, while climate variability and geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose risks to global agricultural markets.  

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