Brazil’s chicken, pork exports projected to rise in 2025 despite bird flu outbreaks
Brazil’s 5.32 Million Ton Chicken Exports and Pork Shipments Set to Rise in 2025
BRAZIL – Brazilian chicken shipments are forecast to reach 5.32 million metric tons in 2025, representing a 0.5% increase from last year, according to the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA).
Earlier projections before the bird flu outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul had estimated a 1.9% rise to 5.4 million tons, but authorities contained the disease in about a month, preventing larger-scale trade disruptions.
In August, with some bans still in effect, ABPA had warned that exports could decline by as much as 2%, dropping to 5.2 million tons, highlighting the outbreak’s potential impact on Brazil’s poultry trade.
The resurgence of bird flu in the United States, which reduces domestic production, may create additional space for Brazilian chicken in international markets, ABPA officials noted.
Brazil currently accounts for 38% of global chicken exports, while the United States holds 27%, meaning any drop in U.S. shipments can shift international supply dynamics significantly.
ABPA also revised its domestic production forecast, estimating chicken output will rise by up to 2.2% to 15.3 million tons in 2025 and could reach 15.6 million tons in 2026.
Pork production and exports are expected to follow a similar upward trend, with Brazil potentially securing the position of the world’s third-largest pork supplier next year.
African swine fever outbreaks in Europe and the Philippines have increased demand for Brazilian pork, opening new opportunities for exporters, according to ABPA.
The association projected pork exports could increase by 10% this year to 1.49 million tons, while production is forecast to expand by up to 4.6% to 5.55 million tons.
Brazilian meat exporters, therefore, face a market where poultry and pork shipments are growing despite regional disease challenges, as global demand shifts and competitor supply fluctuates.
The projections from ABPA indicate that Brazil’s role in international meat trade will continue to strengthen, driven by both rising domestic output and openings created by outbreaks in other producing countries.
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