Cal-Maine Foods stock sees 67% rise in a year
The company’s shares have surged even as earnings estimates drop and egg prices decline from earlier peaks.
USA – Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., one of the leading egg producers in the USA, is maintaining strong stock market performance, with shares rising 66.6% over the past year, even as the broader Basic Materials sector declined by 3.5% and its industry group slid 15.8%.
In contrast, the S&P 500 has recorded an 11.6% gain over the same period, reflecting a much slower growth rate compared to Cal-Maine’s performance.
The company has also outperformed other poultry-focused stocks, including Post Holdings, Inc. (POST), Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation (PPC), and Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL), whose share prices have lagged behind.
Valuation and Analyst Sentiment
Despite its share gains, Cal-Maine’s stock is trading at a higher valuation than many of its peers, currently priced at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.08x, while the industry average stands at 10.19x.
Post Holdings and Pilgrim’s Pride are trading at lower multiples of 15.21x and 8.92x respectively, although Vital Farms, which markets itself as a premium brand, has a higher ratio of 23.15x.
However, analyst confidence in the company’s near-term growth appears to be declining, with earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 both revised downward in the last two months.
The consensus estimate for fiscal 2025 is now US$22.73 per share, reflecting a sharp year-on-year increase, but the forecast for 2026 has dropped to US$5.71 per share, indicating a significant projected decline.
Egg Price Correction Poses a Risk
A recent fall in egg prices could put pressure on Cal-Maine’s future earnings, reversing gains made during a period of supply constraints.
In 2024 and 2025, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) led to the loss of more than 76 million birds in the U.S., causing a spike in egg prices and boosting Cal-Maine’s revenues.
The company reported a 102% increase in year-over-year sales in the latest quarter, reaching US$1.42 billion.
But with the U.S. Department of Agriculture implementing a US$1 billion program to reduce HPAI outbreaks and supply disruptions easing, prices have started to retreat.
As of June 6, 2025, the average price of a dozen large white eggs dropped to US$3.34, down from US$6.23 in March and US$5.12 in April.
Expansion into Cage-Free Market Continues
While short-term earnings may be affected by lower egg prices, Cal-Maine is moving forward with its long-term investment in cage-free egg production to meet shifting consumer preferences and regulatory requirements.
The company is spending US$60 million to expand capacity by 1.1 million cage-free hens and 250,000 pullets through ongoing capital projects.
Recent acquisitions, including shell egg production facilities from ISE America and assets from Deal-Rite Feeds, are also aimed at increasing its cage-free supply and infrastructure.
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